884
FXUS63 KIND 210829
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
329 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATING PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING,
WHICH HAS CAUSED WINDS TO GO NORTHWESTERLY AND TEMPERTURES TO DROP.
HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS RATHER WEAK AND
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. NEVERTHELESS, COLDER AIR
SHOULD STILL SEEP SOUTHWARD UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE 20S THIS MORNING SHOULD BOUNCE BACK INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING WINDS TO GO NEARLY CALM. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
EASTWARD THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE NIGHT. WE'VE STEEPENED
THE INITIAL TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER SUNSET BEFORE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
LEVEL OFF. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 20S.
ADDITIONALLY, MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WHICH MAY BRING
RAIN/DRIZZLE BY MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...
SURFACE RIDGES GENERALLY POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
GENERALLY LESS INTENSE AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WILL MOST OFTEN PROVIDE SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES INTO THE LOCAL REGION.
DESPITE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WARM
ADVECTIVE FLOW STEADILY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND THE
UPPER 40S MONDAY TO NEAR 60F FOR MANY ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ONLY ORGANIZED EXCEPTION TO THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
TRANSIENT BUT LESS-INTENSE NORTHERN SURFACE RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO INDIANA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PERHAPS
DROPPING MERCURYS TO THE FREEZING MARK OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO STEADILY BUILD DEEP MOISTURE TO
1.00-1.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY CHRISTMAS DAY...ALTHOUGH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONCURRENTLY BUILDING NORTH OVER EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE US WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH MID-LEVEL FORCING.
NONETHELESS, ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN
A BETTER GRADIENT SHOULD PROVIDE A SOLID PUSH OF MOISTURE/DRIZZLE
INTO THE CWA...AND AGAIN AROUND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME WHEN A
WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS EAST INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID-
60S ARE ON THE TABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WHICH WILL FLIRT WITH THE
RECORD HIGH (64, 1893).
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A TREND BACK TO LESS ANOMALOUS ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SHOULD FOLLOW A
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AROUND THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WHEN A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE UPPER FORCING WILL SUSPEND RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES FOR A COUPLE PERIODS TO END THE WEEK. SUBSEQUENT POLAR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHOSE CENTER SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH
WILL MOST LIKELY SUPPORT DIURNAL RANGES WITHIN THE 30S TO 40S...AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD NORTH YET AGAIN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...MAINTAINING AT LEAST A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST,
IF NOT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF 2025.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
IMPACTS:
- WINDS BECOMING W/NW, GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 09Z
- NEAR LLWS CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND WINDS ARE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. IND RECORDED A 21KT WIND GUST, A FEW MORE OF
WHICH MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS BEGIN DIMINISHING AROUND 09Z.
WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SWITCH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY IS THEN EXPECTED AFTER 00Z AS THE HIGH PULLS AWAY.
WINDS ALOFT MAY BE FAST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LLWS OF 30-35KT,
MAINLY FROM THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD TO ABOUT 09Z.
MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PASS THROUGH AT TIMES, RANGING FROM FEW
TO SCT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ECKHOFF
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
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