363
FXUS63 KIND 211127
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
627 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATING PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING,
WHICH HAS CAUSED WINDS TO GO NORTHWESTERLY AND TEMPERTURES TO DROP.
HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS RATHER WEAK AND
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. NEVERTHELESS, COLDER AIR
SHOULD STILL SEEP SOUTHWARD UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE 20S THIS MORNING SHOULD BOUNCE BACK INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING WINDS TO GO NEARLY CALM. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
EASTWARD THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE NIGHT. WE'VE STEEPENED
THE INITIAL TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER SUNSET BEFORE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
LEVEL OFF. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 20S.
ADDITIONALLY, MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WHICH MAY BRING
RAIN/DRIZZLE BY MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...
SURFACE RIDGES GENERALLY POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
GENERALLY LESS INTENSE AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WILL MOST OFTEN PROVIDE SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES INTO THE LOCAL REGION.
DESPITE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WARM
ADVECTIVE FLOW STEADILY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND THE
UPPER 40S MONDAY TO NEAR 60F FOR MANY ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ONLY ORGANIZED EXCEPTION TO THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
TRANSIENT BUT LESS-INTENSE NORTHERN SURFACE RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO INDIANA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PERHAPS
DROPPING MERCURYS TO THE FREEZING MARK OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO STEADILY BUILD DEEP MOISTURE TO
1.00-1.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY CHRISTMAS DAY...ALTHOUGH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONCURRENTLY BUILDING NORTH OVER EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE US WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH MID-LEVEL FORCING.
NONETHELESS, ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN
A BETTER GRADIENT SHOULD PROVIDE A SOLID PUSH OF MOISTURE/DRIZZLE
INTO THE CWA...AND AGAIN AROUND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME WHEN A
WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS EAST INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID-
60S ARE ON THE TABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WHICH WILL FLIRT WITH THE
RECORD HIGH (64, 1893).
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A TREND BACK TO LESS ANOMALOUS ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SHOULD FOLLOW A
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AROUND THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WHEN A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE UPPER FORCING WILL SUSPEND RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES FOR A COUPLE PERIODS TO END THE WEEK. SUBSEQUENT POLAR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHOSE CENTER SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH
WILL MOST LIKELY SUPPORT DIURNAL RANGES WITHIN THE 30S TO 40S...AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD NORTH YET AGAIN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...MAINTAINING AT LEAST A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST,
IF NOT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF 2025.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
IMPACTS:
- MVFR STRATUS ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH
PASSES EASTWARD TONIGHT.
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS NORTHWARD NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE
LATER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ECKHOFF
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
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