937
FXUS63 KIND 250832
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
332 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH 11 AM TODAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, YET DAMP/DREARY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MILDER FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN 60S MOST DAYS
- SHARP TRANSITION TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
UNSEASONABLY MILD, YET RATHER DAMP CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BATTLE BETWEEN BROAD SUBTROPICAL H500 RIDGE
BUILT UP INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US...AND SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING ONTARIO TODAY...WILL PLACE MOST OF THE REGION
JUST INSIDE THE NORTHERN HIGH'S REALM, WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STAY TRAPPED AMID AN INVERSION BELOW 925 MB. VERY POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY WILL SEE MODEST IMPROVEMENT...AS NORTHEAST
FLOW HOLDS HIGHER RH VALUES, AND GRADUALLY BRINGS DRIER AIR AND
IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
ANY DRIZZLE/STRAY SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER TO MIST THROUGH PRE-DAWN
HOURS WITH AREAS OF LOWER VISIBILITY UNDER LOW STRATUS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THICK OVERCAST EXPECTED TO LINGER TODAY...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING DECREASE
THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F ACROSS REGION'S
NORTHERN TIER...TO LOW 60S SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON.
NEXT WAVE QUICKLY CROSSING IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT WILL
ONLY RE-DETERIORATE CONDITIONS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AMID THICKENING FOG/INCREASING AREAS OF DRIZZLE. ALLOW EXTRA TIME
IF TRAVELING THIS CHRISTMAS NIGHT, KEEPING SAFE DISTANCES FROM OTHER
VEHICLES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 40F EAST OF LAFAYETTE,
TO 50S SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TERRE HAUTE TO SEYMOUR.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM TO OVERSEE THREE OF THE MILDEST DAYS
SINCE THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER...BEFORE ABRUPT TRANSITION TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD, WITH AXIS CROSSING INDIANA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEKEND. WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL ATTEMPT TO
BUILD ITS SOUTHERN EXTENTS INTO THE REGION, WHEN SMALLER WAVES
RIDING THE RIDGE PUSH LESS-INTENSE LOW PRESSURE/ASSOCIATED NEAR-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONES EAST OVER THE REGION. THIS IS TRANSLATE TO
DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN LOCAL CONDITIONS, WITH NEAR CONSTANTLY
VEERING WINDS INFLUENCING THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH READINGS, AND ALSO
PROMOTING AT TIMES, FOGGY CONDITIONS.
BRIGHTEST SKIES LIKELY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES, AS
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST BREEZES BRING WIDESPREAD 60S. SATURDAY'S LIGHTER
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD DROP
MAXIMUMS 5-10 DEGREES. SUNDAY, ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF
UNTIL LATE DAY, WILL FEATURE MODERATE TO ROBUST SOUTHWEST BREEZES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD BRING ONE FINAL DAY INTO THE
60S DESPITE OVERCAST AND INCREASINGLY RAINY CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLY
A NEAR-RECORD HIGH AT INDIANAPOLIS (65F, 1984).
STRONG/INTENSIFYING COLD FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY
SOUTH TO CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL INCLUDE WEAKER SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDING FROM KANSAS TO NORTHERN MIDWEST. ROUGHLY
24 HOURS OF NUMEROUS TO CONTINUOUS RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ALIGN WITH
THE CALENDAR DAY SUNDAY, AND MAY ACTUALLY BRING MODERATE RAINFALL
TOTALS TO MUCH OF THE REGION, SHOULD STEADIER RATES MATERIALIZE WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY DURING PM HOURS. PERHAPS A SMALL DROP IN
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OF THE FRONTAL ZONE'S PASSAGE WITH TOUCH OF
MODEL DIVERGENCE IN LATEST RUNS. ANY SNOWFLAKES ON THE BACK END OF
THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED GIVEN WARMER GROUND AND FRANTIC ARRIVAL OF
DRIER COLUMN AMID POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER FLOW.
40 DEGREE DROP POSSIBLE IN JUST OVER 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER QUAD CITIES AREA INTO CWA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COLD AND DRY MID-WINTER TYPE PATTERN TO FOLLOW THE LATE WEEKEND'S
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OCCUPY
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CONUS' EASTERN TWO-THIRDS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEK...WHICH WILL, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY, KEEP ANY UPPER RIDGING TO
ONLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND PACIFIC COAST. STACKED NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL HOLD THE NEGATIVE 12 DEGREE CELSIUS H850 ISOTHERM OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA AND EFFORTLESSLY KEEP READINGS BETWEEN MAINLY THE 15-30F
RANGE FROM DAWN MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE STRAY FLURRIES
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY MONDAY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
WHERE LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE PREVALENT...OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT WEEK, MAINLY THROUGH THE
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. QUITE BLUSTERY MONDAY AS GUSTS UP TO AT LEAST 25-
35 MPH WONT ALLOW MUCH DIURNAL RANGE, WITH RESULTANT DAYTIME WIND
CHILLS AROUND 10 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS TO THEN DROP INTO
SINGLE DIGITS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE MODERATED GUSTS INTO
THE MID-WEEK ALLOWING WIND CHILL VALUES TO REBOUND TO AROUND 15-25
DEGREES INTO AFTERNOON TIMEFRAMES. AS BOTH THE LONG TERM AND
CALENDAR YEAR COME TO AN END, CONTINUED WINTRY CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY WITH READINGS MOST OFTEN IN THE 20S AND AT TIMES BREEZY
CONDITIONS OFTEN HOLDING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. THE NORMAL
MAX/MIN AT INDIANAPOLIS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS 37/23.
MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM NWS INDIANAPOLIS.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
IMPACTS:
- LIFR/VLIFR CIGS...IFR/LIFR VIS, OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING
- IMPROVEMENT TO IFR ON CHRISTMAS AT KLAF, AND POSSIBLY KIND...WITH
LIFR LIKELY MAINTAINED AT KHUF/KBMG THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
DISCUSSION:
MAINLY LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS THROUGH DAWN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
TERMINALS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUIETLY CROSSES THE REGION...AMID
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF BR/DZ...WHICH WILL ALSO BRING
DETERIORATING VISIBILITY TO MAINLY IFR/LIFR LEVELS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH VIS LEADING, AND
CIGS HOPEFULLY CLIMBING TO IFR AT KLAF/KIND DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KLAF BY 00Z FRIDAY. KHUF/KBMG TO POTENTIALLY
STAY UNDER LIFR STRATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CIG RETURNING TO KIND AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL VEER FROM
SOUTHERLY TO 280-340 DEGREES BY 12Z. LIGHT BREEZES TO CONTINUE
VEERING CHRISTMAS DAY AS REGION RECEIVES SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER
POLAR HIGH CROSSING ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT
19Z, AND EASTERLY FLOW BY 00Z FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS TO
GUST TO 10-15KT BY 06Z FRIDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057.
SHORT TERM...AGM
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...AGM
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