129
FXUS63 KIND 261443
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
943 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POCKETS OF DRIZZLE,FOG AND LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TODAY
- WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY
- RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY MONDAY
- MUCH COLDER NEXT WEEK
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
WITH VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA, THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.
NO SITES ARE REPORTING QUARTER MILE OR LESS FOG WITH 1-3 MILES
BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANT. EXPECT TO SEE THESE VALUES CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SITES AT OR ABOVE 6 MILES BY
NOON-1PM. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP FROM THE SOUTH, EXPECT TO SEE A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. MODELS MAY BE A BIT BULLISH ON HOW WARM WE GET WITH THE
CLOUDS, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S SOUTH OF INDY,
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AS THE ADVECTION
RAMPS UPS. WHILE CLOUDS MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON, THERE
SHOULD BE A FEW BREAKS HERE OR THERE THAT WILL ALSO HELP WITH
DIURNAL WARMING.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
ANOTHER DREARY EARLY MORNING ONGOING WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE GRADUALLY EXPANDED NORTH OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES TO THE IMMEDIATE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES VARIED WIDELY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AT 07Z...FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
FORCE THE WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRST OFF...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT OVER THE LOWER
WABASH VALLEY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS VISIBILITIES HAVE LARGELY
IMPROVED SINCE 03Z WITH THE ONSET OF S/SE WINDS AS THE WARM FRONT
PRESSES NORTH. VISIBILITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM
FRONT BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MAY INTRODUCE AN SPS FOR
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.
DRIZZLE AND A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN PRIOR TO
MIDDAY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CAN SWEEP EAST OF THE REGION. WIND GUSTS
WILL PEAK AT 20 TO 25 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT PASSES.
IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
FILTER INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MAY BE ABLE TO WEAKEN THE SHALLOW
INVERSION JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS LATE TODAY.
THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS THE COMBINATION OF EXPANDING RIDGING
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ENABLE THE
INVERSION TO REESTABLISH OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. CANNOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED.
TEMPS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS TODAY...EXPECT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL ENABLE
LOWS TO FALL INTO A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A TALE OF TWO SEASONS: FIRST A
CONTINUATION OF THE MILDER SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTER FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS OF 2025 WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PASSAGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTH INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION AS WINDS REMAIN LARGELY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S OVER
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
STUBBORN INVERSION IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER TO ENABLE SOME SUN ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
A DEEP, POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE A
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT PRESSES EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AN ANOMALOUS
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON AIDED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO LEVELS NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX LEVELS FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH BRIEF...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW TOPPED CONVECTION
THAT CAN FORM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
THE OVERALL DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IN TANDEM WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DOES PRESENT A NARROW WINDOW
FOR STRONGER CONVECTION THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PULL HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SURFACE. THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY REMAINS A
LIMITING FACTOR IN A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE RISK AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S.
THE TRANSITION TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OCCURS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TUMBLE 30 TO 35 DEGREES IN ROUGHLY 12 HOURS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL EXIT BEFORE THE DEEPEST COLD AIR ARRIVES, A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND, BUT THE RAPID FREEZE UP OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADWAY COULD PRODUCE A FLASH FREEZE IN
SURFACES THAT HAVE REMAINING STANDING WATER. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DRYING TIME AND STRONGER WINDS TO LIMIT THE OVERALL IMPACTS. A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ON MONDAY. FLURRIES MAY LINGER AS WELL BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WINTER RETURNS IN EARNEST AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THEN RELOADS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FINAL DAYS OF 2025 WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S AND MID 30S. WHILE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE POLAR
HIGH...SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES MAY DRIFT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT TIMES. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
NEW YEAR WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK PULLING HIGHS BACK MAINLY INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
IMPACTS:
- IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS INTO THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SUBTLE
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING
- FOG AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING
- WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
- FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS RETURN LATE TONIGHT
DISCUSSION:
AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
PRIMARY IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE AT KBMG AND KIND AND
COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP TO 1/4SM AT TIMES. AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL VEER TO A W/SW DIRECTION AND
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES BY LATE MORNING WHICH WILL HELP TO DIMINISH
FOG.
THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ENABLE SOME BREAKS TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE STRATUS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO DROP BACK DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER LEVELS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-054>057.
UPDATE...WHITE
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
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