352
FXUS63 KIND 270814
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
314 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY
- STRONG FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 50 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
- RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
- MUCH COLDER WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
STRATUS REMAINS STAGNANT OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
JUST A SMALL POCKET OF CLEARING ACROSS THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. 07Z
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BEFORE EVENTUALLY INFLUENCING A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT LIFTS E/NE INTO SUNDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BIGGER IMPACTS LOCALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND BUT THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE INITIAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS PREDAWN
SUNDAY.
EXPECT ANY CLEARING OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
FILL BACK IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHALLOW INVERSION
REMAINS STRONG. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK AND AS
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS INTO THE AREA WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF FOG INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG COVERAGE TO NOT BE ANYWHERE
NEAR AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT OCCURRED FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE LOWERING OF
THE INVERSION INTO THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER COULD PRESENT A PERIOD
WITH LOCALLY THICKER FOG FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY
WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUNDING
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
THE DEEPENING OF THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ABOVE 900MB WILL BE ABLE
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE INVERSION TO THE POINT WHERE THE STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND MIX OUT ENOUGH TO WHERE THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE DECK
FOR THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR THE INVERSION TO ONCE AGAIN
STRENGTHEN AND THICKER STRATUS TO ENVELOP THE REGION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A SUBTLE INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LARGELY FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS...LOWERED HIGHS TODAY IN MOST AREAS FROM THE BLEND BY A FEW
DEGREES CONSIDERING THE IMPACTS FROM THE STRATUS DECK FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUGGEST A WIDE RANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60. LOWS TONIGHT WILL OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING AT READINGS NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES BELOW THE
HIGHS. THEN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A
STEADY RISE OF SEVERAL DEGREES BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
THE YEAR GOING FROM RECORD HIGHS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HIGH WINDS AND
SNOW WITHIN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. WINTRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE NEW
YEAR WITH ANOTHER EXTENDED STRETCH OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW.
THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS MORNING'S DISCUSSION WILL BE THE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS A STRONG FRONT BRINGS MULTIPLE WEATHER
HAZARDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A DEEPENING SUB 515DM UPPER LOW TRAVERSING
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140+KT JET.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
DEVELOPING MID LATITUDE LOW AS THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE PUSHES WELL
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE MI/IN BORDER AIDED BY A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL
JET PUMPING IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND WARM AIR NORTHWARD.
SUNDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY FOG AND
DRIZZLE AS THE REGION REMAINS ENTRENCHED UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH A NEAR SATURATED LAYER AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING TO
QUICKLY WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SLOWLY RISING AND DEEPENING THE NEAR SURFACE MIXED LAYER.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DEEPER MIXING INTO THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE CLOUDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION AND AMPLE MOISTURE
BELOW IT, WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 DEGREES
WILL BE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH WHERE THERE SHOULD
BE A BREAK FROM ANY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS, AS THAT IS WHERE
DREARY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST LONGER. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOWER TO
LIFT NORTH, PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY REMAINS RELATIVELY
COOLER THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
RANGING FROM NEAR 64 AT KOKOMO TO 71 IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL CURVE SUNDAY, REMAINING
ELEVATED INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
THE IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE PASSING OF THE STRONG FRONT. MOISTURE INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT, AS A STRENGTHENING 50-60KT LLJ ADVECTS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
WITH PWAT VALUES NEARING 1.25 INCHES, WHICH IS ABNORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A CONVECTIVE RISK ALONG THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO NEAR THE UPPER 50S TO
PERHAPS EVEN 60 IN SOME SPOTS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT
UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG THE FRONT. DESPITE GUIDANCE
HINTING AT LOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR ALL SUGGESTS THAT SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
EFFICIENTLY TRANSPORT HIGHER ENERGY TO THE SURFACE AND RESULT IN
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE IN THE WESTERN 2/3RD OF THE REGION, BEFORE INSTABILITY DISSIPATES
LATER IN THE NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, STRONG WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40-50+ ARE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TAPPING INTO MID AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY
MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTS 50-60+ MPH AT
TIMES. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS, A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES.
MONDAY WILL BE A RETURN TO WINTER, IN AN ABRUPT WAY. 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH MAKES A QUICK RETURN AND WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO CRASH QUICKLY,
WHICH COULD INTRODUCE A CONCERN FOR RAPID FREEZING; HOWEVER, MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO HAVE A NARROW DRY
SLUG QUICKLY APPROACH AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SUBSIDENCE
AT THE SURFACE, DRYING THE ENVIRONMENT OUT QUICKLY BEFORE ANY
FREEZING ISSUES DEVELOP. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET FROM THE 60S
INTO THE 20S WITHIN JUST A FEW HOURS OF FROPA ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR ZERO
DEGREES MONDAY MORNING, REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH IN THE MORNING SLOWLY DIMINISH
INTO THE 30-45MPH RANGE DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
TUESDAY.
LINGERING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITHIN A CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH BETTER CHANCES AS ONE HEADS NORTH. A DUSTING
MAY BE POSSIBLE UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER; HOWEVER WITH SUCH WINDY
CONDITIONS, IT WILL BE HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO THE GROUND.
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPS THE COLD AIR BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SETS UP DURING THE WEEK WITH INDIANA
POTENTIALLY BEING IN THE PATH OF A FEW CLIPPERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA MAINLY DRY FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE HINTS THAT FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES MAY BE AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON DETAILS AT THE MOMENT AS THESE CLIPPERS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED
YET. HOWEVER THIS PATTERN SETTING UP DOES SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES IN THE AREA. WILL MONITOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME
FOR LIGHT SNOW AND UPDATE THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FINER DETAILS, HIGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO EARLY
JANUARY.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
IMPACTS:
- IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
FOG AS WELL
- VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOVER BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500FT BUT AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...EXPECT CEILINGS TO SLIDE BACK TO IFR LEVELS. FOG WILL
DEVELOP AS WELL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. COULD STILL SEE VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY
DROP BELOW A MILE AT TIMES NEAR DAYBREAK AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
VISIBILITIES WILL RECOVER TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE MORNING BUT
STRATUS WILL BE STUBBORN TO MIX OUT WITH THE SHALLOW INVERSION
PERSISTING. IT APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL FILTER DOWN INTO THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER BY THE AFTERNOON TO AT LEAST MIX OUT SOME OF THE LOWER
STRATUS WITH A OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO FINALLY RETURN
INTO THE EVENING. STRATUS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10KTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...RYAN
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