208
FXUS63 KIND 152022
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY WITH BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED AND
SOME IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
- LOCALLY HEAVY BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SUBZERO WIND CHILLS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SNOW AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HRS.
FLURRIES THAT WERE PLAGUING CENTRAL ZONES FOR MOST OF TODAY (SOME
OF IT OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED) HAVE FINALLY BEGAN TO MOVE EAST AND
WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST TURNS TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW EVENT, WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWED
DOWN SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER THAT MUST BE
OVERCOME (30-35 DEG T/TD DEPRESSIONS AT 850MB NOTED ON REGIONAL
ACAR SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM). ONCE SATURATION OCCURS THANKS TO STRONG
WAA, THE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE.
STRONGEST WAA LOOKS TO FAVOR THE NW PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE A QUICK 1-1.5 INCH IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING FRIDAY. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE
BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH SNOWFALL. THOUGHTFUL CONSIDERATION WAS
GIVEN TO THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW ARRIVAL WITH THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS PRUDENT OR NOT. CONSIDERING THE
LOW END TOTALS, THE DECISION FOR NOW WAS TO DEFER TO LATER
FORECASTS WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT LATER TONIGHT TO HEADLINE THE IMPACTS.
A GAP IN SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA MID-
MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW AND
RAIN (CONVECTIVE IN NATURE) DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT AHEAD OF POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE HRRR WAS PREFERRED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWER/SQUALL POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT THE WORDING FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE OVERALL
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT A RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE
WET BULB COOLING SUPPORTS A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG OF MUCAPE NOTED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AND THE TIMING OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF FUTURE SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS
AND/OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF
SNOWFALL (IN QUICK BURSTS) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BEFORE 00Z SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER.
WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AFTER SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY THAT WILL HELP DIG THE LARGE TROUGH WILL
MOVE IN ON FRIDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR. THERE WILL
BE SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER AIR, AND FORCING
FROM THE UPPER ENERGY WILL WORK WITH THAT INSTABILITY TO CREATE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME OF THESE MAY BE HEAVY, WITH A POSITIVE SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AND SCATTERED WORDING FRIDAY NIGHT. AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH, BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER A
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.
SOME UPPER FORCING WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY, SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS AROUND, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE DAY WHEN FORCING IS BEST.
AFTER SATURDAY, VARIOUS IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER, THESE WON'T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISED IF LOW POPS HAVE TO BE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA AT
TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD LATER.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY, BUT COLD ADVECTION
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH NEAR ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BRING APPARENT TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND -10 FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE FOR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING WARMER AIR
TO RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
IMPACTS:
- LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER 07Z WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z.
- CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF LIFR
POSSIBLE
- GUSTY SW WINDS 20-25 KTS DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z
DISCUSSION:
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH A FEW FLURRIES WILL END BY 19Z FOR
KIND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL INCREASING CIRRUS/MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPS THIS EVENING.
A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850 MB THIS EVENING (DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30-35 DEG C) WILL LEAD TO SLOWER THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF SNOW UNTIL THE 07-10Z PERIOD
FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY IN THE
STEADIER SNOWBAND FOR A 2-4 HR WINDOW UNTIL 15Z. BY AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT, THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY THAT
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. FOR NOW, WILL CARRY
PROB30 FOR VSBY UNDER 3/4SM SINCE LOCATION OF BANDING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT BY LATE MORNING LASTING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SW WIND GUSTS FROM 20-25 KTS (POSSIBLY
HIGHER IN SNOW BURSTS).
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CROSBIE
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...CROSBIE
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