165
FXUS63 KIND 152329
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
629 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING FRIDAY WITH 0.5-1.5 INCHES SNOWFALL EXPECTED AND SOME
IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
- LOCALLY HEAVY BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
- WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SUBZERO WIND CHILLS AT TIMES
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SNOW AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HRS.
FLURRIES THAT WERE PLAGUING CENTRAL ZONES FOR MOST OF TODAY (SOME
OF IT OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED) HAVE FINALLY BEGAN TO MOVE EAST AND
WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST TURNS TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW EVENT, WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWED
DOWN SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER THAT MUST BE
OVERCOME (30-35 DEG T/TD DEPRESSIONS AT 850MB NOTED ON REGIONAL
ACAR SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM). ONCE SATURATION OCCURS THANKS TO STRONG
WAA, THE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE.
STRONGEST WAA LOOKS TO FAVOR THE NW PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE A QUICK 1-1.5 INCH IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING FRIDAY. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE
BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH SNOWFALL. THOUGHTFUL CONSIDERATION WAS
GIVEN TO THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW ARRIVAL WITH THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS PRUDENT OR NOT. CONSIDERING THE
LOW END TOTALS, THE DECISION FOR NOW WAS TO DEFER TO LATER
FORECASTS WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT LATER TONIGHT TO HEADLINE THE IMPACTS.
A GAP IN SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA MID-
MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW AND
RAIN (CONVECTIVE IN NATURE) DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT AHEAD OF POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE HRRR WAS PREFERRED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWER/SQUALL POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT THE WORDING FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE OVERALL
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT A RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE
WET BULB COOLING SUPPORTS A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG OF MUCAPE NOTED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AND THE TIMING OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF FUTURE SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS
AND/OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF
SNOWFALL (IN QUICK BURSTS) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BEFORE 00Z SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER.
WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AFTER SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY THAT WILL HELP DIG THE LARGE TROUGH WILL
MOVE IN ON FRIDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR. THERE WILL
BE SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER AIR, AND FORCING
FROM THE UPPER ENERGY WILL WORK WITH THAT INSTABILITY TO CREATE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME OF THESE MAY BE HEAVY, WITH A POSITIVE SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AND SCATTERED WORDING FRIDAY NIGHT. AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH, BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER A
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.
SOME UPPER FORCING WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY, SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS AROUND, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE DAY WHEN FORCING IS BEST.
AFTER SATURDAY, VARIOUS IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER, THESE WON'T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISED IF LOW POPS HAVE TO BE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA AT
TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD LATER.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY, BUT COLD ADVECTION
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH NEAR ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BRING APPARENT TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND -10 FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE FOR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING WARMER AIR
TO RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
IMPACTS:
- LATE NIGHT PERIOD OF -SHSN WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS 08Z-11Z
- MVFR CIGS EXPANDING NW TO SE 14Z-17Z...LINGERING INTO EVENING
- POSSIBLE ISOLATED/BRIEF IFR/LIFR VIS IN CONVECTIVE SHSN AFTER 21Z
- SSW WINDS STEADILY INCREASING TONIGHT, GUSTING TO MAINLY 20KT BY
11Z...AND AS UP TO AT LEAST 22-24KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TERMINALS THROUGH
08Z TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR/LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY BOTH A
PERIOD OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT...THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...AND CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS LATE DAY FRIDAY.
A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED PRE-DAWN AMID
STEADIER -SHSN CROSSING THE REGION, WITH LOW-VFR POSSIBLY MAINTAINED
AT KBMG. STACKED TROUGH TO OCCUPY INDIANA BETWEEN PERIODS OF MORE
ORGANIZED SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHEN FLURRIES MAY DROP VIS
TO HIGH-MVFR AT KLAF...AND MORE NOTABLY, CIG WILL FALL THROUGH LOW-
VFR INTO MVFR FROM KLAF TO KBMG DURING 14Z-17Z. CONVECTIVE SHSN AND
POSSIBLE LOCALLY +SHSN TRACKING WEST TO EAST WITHIN 21Z TO 00Z
SATURDAY, WITH LOWER CHANCES OF VIS FALLING BRIEFLY TO IFR/LIFR.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT, SUSTAINED BY
11Z AROUND 12KT AND GUSTING AROUND 20KT. WINDS TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO
WSW THROUGH LATE MORNING/MIDDAY FRIDAY WHILE INCREASING SLIGHTLY.
GUSTS TO PEAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AROUND 22-24KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLY TO 35-40KT UNDER STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CROSBIE
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...AGM
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