851
FXUS63 KIND 160731
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- LOCALLY HEAVY BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
- WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SUBZERO WIND CHILLS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WAS PLACING INDIANA WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO, WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER INDIANA. ALL OF THIS WAS PART OF A
LARGER JET FLOW THAT WAS ALLOWING COLD POLAR AIR TO INTRUDE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE UPPER PATTERN STRETCHED FROM WESTERN CANADA,
DIVING SE TO TX AND LA BEFORE EXITING EAST TO THE ATLANTIC, EAST OF
THE CAROLINAS. THIS WAS KEEPING THIS COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES. GOES19 SHOWS TWO WAVES SPOKING AROUND THE
LOW. THE FIRST WAS FOUND OVER ILLINOIS PUSHING INTO WESTERN INDIANA.
RADAR WAS SHOWING SNOWFALL WITH THIS FEATURE. A SECOND WAVE WAS
FOUND OVER MN/IA AND NB AND APPEARED MORE ORGANIZED WITH COOLING
TOPS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED QUITE COLD,
MAINLY IN THE 20S.
TODAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE DEEP LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST TO WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA TODAY. THE WILL BRING
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA, ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WAVES PUSHING AROUND THE LOW. HRRR SHOWS THE FIRST WAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS IT CONTINUES
TO PUSH INTO WESTERN INDIANA. THE SECOND WAVE IS SUGGESTED TO ARRIVE
BY LATE MORNING, ONCE AGAIN BRING A VERY SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
WITH TEMPERATURES QUITE LOW, VERY LIMITED WATER EQUIVALENT. TIME
HEIGHTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SHOW SATURATION WITHIN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS WITH WEAK LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON, LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE COLUMN BECOME
RATHER STEEP, INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HRRR HERE SUGGESTS SCT-ISO SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL HAVE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE DUE TO THESE FACTORS, HOWEVER TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE SMALL.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FIRST WAVE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE TO THE MID 30S.
FURTHERMORE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES, GUSTY WINDS
TO NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SATURATION ALONG WITH THE ONGOING STEEP LAPSE RATES
CAPABLE OF SNOW SHOWER CONVECTION. CYCLONIC LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS INDIANA AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH BOTH OF THESE PERIODS (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
FAVORABLE FORCING ALOFT ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES
SE TOWARD INDIANA AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
LARGER TROUGH AXIS DIGS TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. THUS WITH THIS
SATURATION IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME FORCING, WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN,
WITHOUT GULF MOISTURE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
LOOK FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE LOWER 20S
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUING TO
TRACK THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS IT MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SATURDAY MORNING, CENTRAL INDIANA
WILL BE SITUATED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES INDICATE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
MID-LEVEL ENERGY WHICH MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. WHILE THE MOST ROBUST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD,
THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE A BRIEF MOISTURE FETCH FROM LAKE MICHIGAN COULD
LOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE FLOW WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER, MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO ERODE
THE CLOUDS.
TRANSITIONING FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD THE
ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY, MORE POTENT SURGE OF POLAR AIR. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SLIDE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MAINTAINING
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING A
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP, WITH MONDAY LIKELY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE
LOW TO MID TEENS, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. DESPITE THE INTENSE COLD, THE AIR MASS IS NOTABLY DRY, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPRESS ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF A FEW PASSING
FLURRIES. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR TO NEAR 15
BELOW IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD WARRANT A
COLD WEATHER HEADLINE IF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLURRIES WITH WEAK VORT MAXES TRAVELING ACROSS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TOWARDS
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THAT PRECIPITATION
IMPACTS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE MARGINAL FOR SNOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
IF ANY DOES OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOOKING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SLOW WARMING TREND LOOKS
TO CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
IMPACTS:
- MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
- TWO PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...08Z-12Z AND 16Z-21Z.
- SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
- GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 KNTS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
DISCUSSION:
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO MICHIGAN
AND THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. A PAIR OF TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AND THE TAF SITES. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED.
THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PASS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. RADAR SHOWS AN LARGE
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER IL PUSHING EAST TOWARD THE WABASH. CURRENT
VFR CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES.
HRRR SHOWS A SECOND WAVE PASSING LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ORGANIZED AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS. THEREAFTER, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATION WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWER CONVECTION. THUS
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...PUMA
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