484
FXUS63 KIND 162000
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. SOME MAY BE BRIEFLY INTENSE
- FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
- WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SUBZERO WIND CHILLS AT TIMES
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST OF MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM AN INCREASING MID
LEVEL JET. WILL KEEP SOME MAINLY CHANCE OR LOWER POPS AS NEEDED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT THIS EVENING, INCREASING LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE AREA. FORCING WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THESE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT,
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH, KEEPING FORCING AND THUS THE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING.
THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INCREASES TONIGHT, INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. WHILE DON'T BELIEVE
THAT CRITERIA FOR SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS WOULD BE REACHED, LOCALIZED
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS, WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW THE LIKELY CATEGORY. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH FOR AREAS THAT SEE SNOW, BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWERS 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER
20S SOUTHEAST.
ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE. SOME GUIDANCE STILL
HAS POSITIVE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED
ON SATURDAY THOUGH.
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND FLURRIES MENTION FOR NOW ON
SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
THANKS TO COLD ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WON'T DO MUCH, WITH READINGS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE CONUS AND
CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH IT, THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND A FEW SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME. THIS SET UP WILL HELP TO BRING A
SURGE OF COLD AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM, LEAVING WIND CHILLS NEAR TO BELOW ZERO FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. LOWEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS, WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO AND AS LOW AS -15 TO MAYBE -20
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BE PREPARED BY
BUNDLING UP IN LAYERS AND MINIMIZING TIME OUTDOORS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK LEAVING A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST, ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE
OUT PERIODS OF FLURRIES FROM THE PASSING SHORT WAVES.
GOING INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO
LOOSEN UP AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SURFACE
LOW POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE THROUGH THE AREA THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE AREA, LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
IMPACTS:
-MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT
-CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THROUGH 00Z
DISCUSSION:
AN INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AND MAY IMPACT KIND/KBMG WITH MOSTLY MVFR VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE SNOW.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
MVFR AND WORSE VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN
SITES.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SKY COVER ON SATURDAY BUT SOME LOW VFR/HIGH
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH SOME FLURRIES.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...50
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