097
FXUS63 KIND 170600
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. SOME MAY BE BRIEFLY INTENSE
- FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
- WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SUBZERO WIND CHILLS AT TIMES
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
LONE STRONGER SNOW SHOWER CONTINUES TO STEADILY ADVANCE EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PUTNAM COUNTY AND NOW ALSO INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INDIANAPOLIS METRO. OVERALL WEAKENING ALSO
INCLUDED BURST OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NORTHEASTERN HENDRICKS
COUNTY WITHIN LAST HALF HOUR...ALTHOUGH WEBCAM/PLOWCAM FOOTAGE AND
TRAFFIC DATA HAS SO FAR INDICATED ANY IMPACTS TO BE MINOR. A FEW
MORE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 7Z, ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL ZONES. OTHERWISE EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES BLOWING ACROSS THE
LANDSCAPE THROUGH DAWN.
MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES WILL ONLY INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS
NEARING 20 MPH BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES IN MAINLY THE LOW 30S WILL
GIVE WAY TO THE COLD ADVECTIVE FLOW, WITH MINIMUM READINGS BY EARLY
SATURDAY RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS IN WARREN COUNTY TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS SEVERAL SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST OF MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM AN INCREASING MID
LEVEL JET. WILL KEEP SOME MAINLY CHANCE OR LOWER POPS AS NEEDED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT THIS EVENING, INCREASING LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE AREA. FORCING WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THESE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT,
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH, KEEPING FORCING AND THUS THE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING.
THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INCREASES TONIGHT, INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. WHILE DON'T BELIEVE
THAT CRITERIA FOR SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS WOULD BE REACHED, LOCALIZED
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS, WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW THE LIKELY CATEGORY. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH FOR AREAS THAT SEE SNOW, BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWERS 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER
20S SOUTHEAST.
ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE. SOME GUIDANCE STILL
HAS POSITIVE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED
ON SATURDAY THOUGH.
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND FLURRIES MENTION FOR NOW ON
SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
THANKS TO COLD ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WON'T DO MUCH, WITH READINGS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE CONUS AND
CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH IT, THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND A FEW SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME. THIS SET UP WILL HELP TO BRING A
SURGE OF COLD AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM, LEAVING WIND CHILLS NEAR TO BELOW ZERO FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. LOWEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS, WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO AND AS LOW AS -15 TO MAYBE -20
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BE PREPARED BY
BUNDLING UP IN LAYERS AND MINIMIZING TIME OUTDOORS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK LEAVING A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST, ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE
OUT PERIODS OF FLURRIES FROM THE PASSING SHORT WAVES.
GOING INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO
LOOSEN UP AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SURFACE
LOW POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE THROUGH THE AREA THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE AREA, LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
IMPACTS:
- MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.
- SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE UNTIL 10Z.
DISCUSSION:
GOES19 SHOWS CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA AS MVFR AND VFR CIGS WERE
ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST. HRRR SUGGESTS SNOW SHOWERS AS SEEN
ON RADAR WILL EXIT EAST AND END. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES
BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND SATURATION IS LOST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY INSTEAD TREND TO AN INVERTED V SHAPE,
SUGGESTING DRY AIR WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS AND STRATOCU ALOFT. THUS
HAVE TRENDED TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...AGM
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...PUMA
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