652
FXUS63 KIND 172002
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
SUNDAY EVENING
- WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 TO -10 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
COLD AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS WITH POCKETS OF FLURRIES AND AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. 19Z TEMPERATURES REMAINED NEARLY STEADY IN THE
LOWER AND MID 20S WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN
THE TEENS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE
PARENT TROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL
VORT ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT ACARS SOUNDING FROM KIND SHOWS A STRONG INVERSION PRESENT
JUST ABOVE 800MB WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH IT. DESPITE A LACK
OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE...THIS HAS BEEN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STRATUS WILL REMAIN AS WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING EXPANDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE INVERSION WEAKENS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION ATTEMPTING TO REESTABLISH ALBEIT
IN A WEAKER STATE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOWER POCKETS OF STRATUS
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS A RESULT WITH SUN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
BE QUIET BUT COLD DESPITE THE ONSET OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
BROADER AREA OF FLURRIES WITH LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WILL EXPAND INTO
THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE DAY SUNDAY THEN
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS...HIGHS FOR TODAY HAVE LARGELY BEEN REACHED WITH SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT
LOWER 20S TO UPPER 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
AN ONGOING LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS AND CANADA THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH A FEW SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE EXITING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW BEFORE MORE INFLUENCE FROM A SURFACE HIGH BRINGS
DRIER AIR TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
TUESDAY. THIS TROUGHING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE COLD,
WINDY AIR MASS TO THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO BE OUR COLDEST
DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY TO BE IN THE TEENS
WITH LOWS BOTH DURING THE MORNING AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT TO SEE
SINGLE DIGITS. GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH DURING THIS TIME WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS FROM 0 DEGREES DOWN TO AROUND -15 AT TIMES, SO BUNDLE UP
TO NOT BE SO DAUNTED BY THE CHILL.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE A SURFACE LOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP BRIEFLY,
AS WELL AS BRING SLIGHT POPS, BEFORE TEMPS DROP AGAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. YET ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR. AT THIS TIME, EXPECTING TO SEE A MIX
OF PRECIP TYPES, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR YET IN WHAT FORM
THAT WILL FALL. FOR NOW STICKING WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS IN THE THERMAL PROFILE.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
IMPACTS:
- VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR RETURNING
EARLY SUNDAY
- WESTERLY WIND GUSTS PEAKING AT 20-25KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
DISCUSSION:
STRATUS HAS LARGELY LIFTED BACK UP INTO THE VFR CATEGORY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AZ FEW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BUT WILL HAVE NO
IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK AT 20 TO
25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN FALL BACK TO 10 TO 15KTS THIS
EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION STRENGTHENING AND
LOWERING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRATOCU LIKELY TO
SLIP BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RYAN
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