242
FXUS63 KIND 180453
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1153 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
SUNDAY EVENING
- WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 TO -10 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 852 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WITHIN A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS
PRODUCING WEAK SNOW SHOWERS OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
ADDITIONAL HOURS OF FLURRIES AS THE WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITH THE SAME TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS LIKELY WILL ONLY RESULT IN ADDED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE LAFAYETTE TO KOKOMO REGION.
THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT DIURNAL COOLING HAS REMOVED
THE WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA, WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
MOSTLY ALL DISSIPATED AS OF 0145Z. STILL, WILL KEEP A 10-20 POP
ACROSS THE NW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITY OF A
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
COLD AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS WITH POCKETS OF FLURRIES AND AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. 19Z TEMPERATURES REMAINED NEARLY STEADY IN THE
LOWER AND MID 20S WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN
THE TEENS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE
PARENT TROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL
VORT ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT ACARS SOUNDING FROM KIND SHOWS A STRONG INVERSION PRESENT
JUST ABOVE 800MB WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH IT. DESPITE A LACK
OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE...THIS HAS BEEN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STRATUS WILL REMAIN AS WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING EXPANDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE INVERSION WEAKENS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION ATTEMPTING TO REESTABLISH ALBEIT
IN A WEAKER STATE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOWER POCKETS OF STRATUS
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS A RESULT WITH SUN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
BE QUIET BUT COLD DESPITE THE ONSET OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
BROADER AREA OF FLURRIES WITH LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WILL EXPAND INTO
THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE DAY SUNDAY THEN
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS...HIGHS FOR TODAY HAVE LARGELY BEEN REACHED WITH SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT
LOWER 20S TO UPPER 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
AN ONGOING LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS AND CANADA THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH A FEW SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE EXITING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW BEFORE MORE INFLUENCE FROM A SURFACE HIGH BRINGS
DRIER AIR TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
TUESDAY. THIS TROUGHING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE COLD,
WINDY AIR MASS TO THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO BE OUR COLDEST
DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY TO BE IN THE TEENS
WITH LOWS BOTH DURING THE MORNING AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT TO SEE
SINGLE DIGITS. GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH DURING THIS TIME WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS FROM 0 DEGREES DOWN TO AROUND -15 AT TIMES, SO BUNDLE UP
TO NOT BE SO DAUNTED BY THE CHILL.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE A SURFACE LOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP BRIEFLY,
AS WELL AS BRING SLIGHT POPS, BEFORE TEMPS DROP AGAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. YET ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR. AT THIS TIME, EXPECTING TO SEE A MIX
OF PRECIP TYPES, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR YET IN WHAT FORM
THAT WILL FALL. FOR NOW STICKING WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS IN THE THERMAL PROFILE.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
IMPACTS:
- SOME VFR EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE COMING MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION:
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE FOUND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. GOES16 SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD ACROSS THE TAF SITES, HOWEVER AN AREA MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND
OVER IL, POISED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR
CURRENT VFR CIGS TO BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LESSEN AFTER 12Z AS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST
PULLS AWAY AND RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT, THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING, BEFORE HEATING ALLOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF VFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER A RETURN OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED MVFR CIGS AS THIS TROUGH PASSES ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A FEW
LIGHT SNOWFLAKES OR SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...UPDIKE
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...PUMA
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