793
FXUS63 KIND 190216
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
916 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 AT TIMES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LED TO
WIDEPSREAD SNOW ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL, AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THERE IS SOME EVAPORATIVELY COOLING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, WHERE LIFT IS GREATEST, LEADING TO BETTER LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND SNOW RATES AS OF 02Z. CURRENTLY SEEING MANY AREAS
NORTH OF I-70 WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE.
GIVEN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS WITH GOOD COOLING ALOFT,
SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE RATHER EFFECIIENT TONIGHT SOMEWHERE IN THE 18-
22:1 RANGE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH 0.01-0.04" OF QPF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.1-0.8", GREATEST
AMOUNTS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO KOKOMO AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THIS
TROUGH PUSHING A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST, OF WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A QPF GRADIENT NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR WHEN THE
PRIMARY SNOWFALL STOPS SOMETIME BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR, CYCLONIC, COLD
FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A STABLE STRATUS LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
THE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND DRY, COLD AIR REMAINS SLIGHTLY
UPSTABLE LEADING TO STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO
BE ATTACHED WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS PUSHING
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO, BETWEEN -10 AND -20 ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
STRATUS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MIXING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE ALL DAY WITH UPPER TEENS
AND LOWER 20S AS OF 19Z.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. THE FIRST INVOLVES THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT MID
LEVEL VORT LOBE PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE SECOND COMES IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND GUSTY W/NW WINDS BRING
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-
70 BEFORE THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE
DAY. THE SNOW IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING THEN PIVOTING E/SE ACROSS
THE REGION. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND OBS/RADAR DATA TO
OUR NORTHWEST SUPPORTS THAT THINKING. HAVE EXPANDED THE LIGHT SNOW
COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
STEADIEST OF THE LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF I-70. EXPECT A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD
WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS SUBTLE ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS AT 20-1...LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA RANGING FROM A COUPLE TENTHS TO NEAR AN INCH OVER FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS IMMEDIATELY DEVELOPING AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION COMMENCES. PERIODIC GUSTS TO 30 TO 35MPH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY BEFORE
FALLING BACK SLOWLY LATE DAY. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY...STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT IT REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
FULL CLEARING HOLDING OFF UNTIL NEAR SUNSET.
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS...WIND CHILLS WILL TUMBLE BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT
AND SHOULD STAY THERE ALL DAY MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE EXTENDED THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT GREENE/KNOX/SULLIVAN COUNTIES THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE THE -10
THRESHOLD MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE
HEADLINE EXTENSION. LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH OF I-70. NUDGED HIGH TEMPS LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH THE
CLOUDS LINGERING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 10 IN THE
NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
AN ONGOING LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS AND CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE A FEW
SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH IT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START OFF THE PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR DRY BUT STILL CHILLY WEATHER TO
START. THE EXPECTED BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING HAS PROMPTED A CONTINUATION OF THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP WEDNESDAY, AS WELL AS INCREASED WINDS,
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW QUICKLY PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH A COMBO OF RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS ELEVATED WIND GUSTS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S RANGE WEDNESDAY, BUT BEHIND THE LOW TEMPS WILL DROP
BACK DOWN.
THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
POTENTIALLY IN THE TEENS. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION (NAMELY SNOW) THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. PREVIOUSLY ICE MIXING IN SEEMED
POSSIBLE, BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF A LOW AND
THUS COLDER TEMPS AND DIMINISHING ICE POTENTIAL. STILL WILL MONITOR
TRENDS IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AS NEXT WEEKEND APPROACHES. LOOKING
INTO NEXT WEEK, THE SIGNAL IS THERE THAT THE END OF JANUARY WILL BE
A COLD ONE AND CENTRAL INDIANA MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MORE THAN A FEW
DAYS ABOVE FREEZING.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
IMPACTS:
- LIGHT SNOW WITH PERIODS OF MVFR THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT;
PRIMARILY AT KIND AND KLAF
- WIND GUSTS PEAKING AT 30KTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION:
A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FORCING AHEAD OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WITH KIND AND KLAF THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR. SNOW
WILL LAST FOR 4-6 HOURS AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRISK WITH A W/WNW WIND
SUSTAINED AT 10-15KT AND GUSTS TO 25KT.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITHIN
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW, BUT WEAK DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD LIFT THIS
STRATUS LAYER TO NEAR VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEEPING ALL
SITES IN MVFR CEILINGS, BUT THIS MAY IMPROVE IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ060-
061-067.
UPDATE...UPDIKE
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...UPDIKE
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