396
FXUS63 KIND 200411
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1111 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH 9 AM TUESDAY; BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY W/SW
WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 AT TIMES TODAY AND
TONIGHT
- SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WINTER STORM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
VERY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY
IN LINE WITH ONGOING OBSERVATIONS. A STRATO-CU LAYER OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA, PARTIALLY DUE TO SLIGHT LATENT HEAT INCREASES FROM PRIOR
SNOW FALL, HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SW. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER BENEATH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET RACING EASTWARD, BUT THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS
TO NOT REACH CENTRAL INDIANA TIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND WEAKENING WINDS
AS THE PBL DECOUPLES. FOR THIS REASON OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE DROPPED A
FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR EFFICIENT DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
THE COMBINATION OF WINDS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER, BUT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING LOWER WILL LIKELY COUNTERACT EACH OTHER WHEN CONSIDERING
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MORNING. STILL LOOKING LIKE -7 TO -12F
ACROSS MOST OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD THROUGH 9AM.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON MAX OUT IN THE TEENS WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 20-30 MPH. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 FORECASTED. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLIES
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM, WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING AND SOUTHERLY BY THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE WISE, THE COLD REMAINS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTED BUT WILL THEN WARM SOME TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 THANKS TO THE START OF WAA.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS
GENERATING THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL LOOSEN UP SOME TONIGHT AND
THUS ALLOWING GUSTS TO DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH, SO WINDS WON'T ENTIRELY DROP OFF
AND STILL COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH PERIODICALLY TOMORROW, WHILE
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH.
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN VERY MINIMAL POPS THROUGH TOMORROW BUT AS IS
TYPICAL IN THESE COLD TEMPERATURES, WHICH DOESN'T NEED MUCH ENERGY
TO PRODUCE SNOW, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES FORMING
WITHIN LOWER PASSING CLOUDS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN LARGELY ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COLDER AND AT TIME
BITTERLY COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION. EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A HIGHER IMPACT WINTER STORM THIS COMING WEEKEND
BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
A BRIEF RELAXING OF THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME WILL
COMBINE WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ENABLE
MILDER AIR TO RETURN FOR MIDWEEK AND BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW.
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY FRONT
ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A FRESH SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE SECOND FRONT WITH POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST
SURFACE HIGH OF THE SEASON SO FAR POISED TO DIVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH WILL PLAY A
PIVOTAL ROLE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION FOR THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE EASTERN U S AND WILL DISCUSS THAT FURTHER BELOW...BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS POLAR ORIGIN AIRMASS
FOR LATE WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND SUBZERO LOWS
POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A PHASING OF POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS FOR THE WEEKEND AIDING IN A BROAD SWATH OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE GULF
COAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER IN THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION REMAINING SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS EXTENDED MODELS
HAVE LARGELY TRENDED TOWARDS A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...A PRIME LOCATION THAT WOULD SUPPORT
SUPPRESSING THE STORM SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID ANY DELAY IN THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE HIGH OR ITS ARRIVAL AT A WEAKER STRENGTH
WOULD ALLOW FOR A NORTHWARD SHIFT TO THE STORM TRACK.
THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT IS LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH OVERALL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AS THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT ABOUT 120-144 HOURS OUT. THE TAKEAWAY
MESSAGE IS TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER IMPACT WINTER
STORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S INCLUDING PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. STAY TUNED WITH DETAILS
TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNS OF ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COLD AIR AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
IMPACTS:
- VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DISCUSSION:
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDED NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE
TAF PERIOD, KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINTAIN DRY LOWER LEVELS OVER THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS, INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS.
A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL PASS FROM TIME TO TIME. GOES19 SHOWS A LEAF OF
MID CLOUD OVER IL, POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE
FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE EARLY HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE USED A
TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS. STILL, ALL OF THIS WILL BE VFR.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057.
UPDATE...UPDIKE
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...PUMA
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