229
FXUS63 KIND 201955
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
- SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IN WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WINTER STORM PASSES
TO THE SOUTH, EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE MSLP GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WEAK SYSTEM. EXPECT LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING DUE TO
THIS. LOWS ARE LIKELY GOING TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
TONIGHT.
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. VERY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FLURRIES OR A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DIURNAL MIXING
INTO A STRONG LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SUPPORTS STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. LOOK FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITHIN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
PRECIPITATION APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT
PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S TO TO MID 30S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL WILL KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS QUIET. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHOTS
OF COLDER AIR WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. LOOK FOR STRONGER
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
FRIDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT NW BREEZE ARE LIKELY GOING
TO RESULT IN SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD
AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SETTLES IN. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS AT TIMES.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA. WIND CHILLS COULD BE AS LOW AS -10F TO -19F,
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS A STRONG SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO THE
WEEKEND LIKELY RESULTING IN MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR A LARGE PART OF
THE COUNTRY. THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE MID-SOUTH. MEANWHILE ALOFT, THE SUB-TROPICAL JET AND POLAR JET
WILL PHASE TOGETHER PROMOTING STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. STRONG DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS GULF
MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE BAROCLINIC FAVORS HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MOST LIKELY FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THAT
BEING SAID, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXTENT OF
IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO VARYING SOLUTIONS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
TREND THE LAST FEW RUNS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS REGARDING SNOW
AMOUNTS OR IMPACTS WILL REMAIN HIGH UNTIL MODELS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WHERE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED. MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A
MORE NORTHWARD TRACK WHICH COULD LEAD TO GREATER IMPACTS ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
IMPACTS:
- WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING
- NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
- 25-32 KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS IS THEN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS LATE TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-32 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR IND/BMG.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELO
LONG TERM...MELO
AVIATION...MELO
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