016
FXUS63 KIND 040753
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
253 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 20S TODAY AND THURSDAY
- TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK
- LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LOW STRATUS DECK MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTH. THIS STRATUS DECK IS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
MOVED THROUGH EARLIER. SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR AT
THIS TIME AND IS COOLER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH. SUBTLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COOL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY, BUT LOOK FOR DIURNAL
COOLING TO BE LIMITED FROM THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY
REMAIN IN THE TEENS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS DECK TO MIX OUT SOME DURING THE
MORNING LEADING TO GREATER SUNSHINE, BUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY WITH SLIGHT REDEVELOPMENT
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH A COLDER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE REGION AND N/NE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 20S.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOW-
LEVELS. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHT NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH THE
INVERSION COULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS DECK
OVERNIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS WITH THE HREF
DEPICTING INCREASING COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WERE
INCREASED FOR THIS REASON AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS REDEVELOP. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE PROMINENT FEATURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U S INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH PRIOR TO
SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME...MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH ONLY A LIMITED
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF RIDGING
ALOFT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL ADVECT MILDER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY AND MAY PRODUCE
A FEW FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THERE REMAIN
SIGNALS FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A QUASI-ZONAL REGIME
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED BUT A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE 20S THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
BUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BEFORE DAYTIME HIGHS FALL BACK
LARGELY INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODIFY ON SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY RISING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
IMPACTS:
- MVFR CEILINGS POTENTIALLY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
- VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT,
PARTICULARLY AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
A LOW STRATUS DECK IS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA BEHIND A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT BMG AS THE STRATUS DECK WILL NOT MOVE
IN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE SOME DRY AIR HELPS TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS
FOR A TIME.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT025 IS POSSIBLE, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON HOW LONG IT LASTS BEFORE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AGAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING APPEARS TO BE MID-MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME MINOR INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE 5-10 KTS MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELO
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...MELO
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