133
FXUS63 KIND 041420
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
920 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 20S TODAY AND THURSDAY
- TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK
- LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THAT WAS NEEDED THIS MORNING WAS ADDING
AN AREA OF FLURRIES GENERALLY NEAR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA AND POINTS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
MOVING AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS WITH JUST A HINT OF LIFT IN THE 850MB
TO 700MB LAYER. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THESE FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE
TOWARDS NOON AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN AS LOW AS 5 MILES WITH NO REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS OR ROAD
IMPACTS NOTED AT THIS TIME.
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
FORECASTING CLOUD COVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE
SUBSIDENCE LAYER IMPACTS THE RATE OF DISSIPATION AS DRIER AIR TRIES
TO WORK INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS LIKELY STICK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN
MODELS SUGGEST, SO WILL GENERALLY TREND THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AT
LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WITH THESE CLOUDS STICKING AROUND AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR STEADY-STATE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LOW STRATUS DECK MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTH. THIS STRATUS DECK IS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
MOVED THROUGH EARLIER. SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR AT
THIS TIME AND IS COOLER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH. SUBTLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COOL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY, BUT LOOK FOR DIURNAL
COOLING TO BE LIMITED FROM THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY
REMAIN IN THE TEENS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS DECK TO MIX OUT SOME DURING THE
MORNING LEADING TO GREATER SUNSHINE, BUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY WITH SLIGHT REDEVELOPMENT
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH A COLDER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE REGION AND N/NE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 20S.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOW-
LEVELS. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHT NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH THE
INVERSION COULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS DECK
OVERNIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS WITH THE HREF
DEPICTING INCREASING COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WERE
INCREASED FOR THIS REASON AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS REDEVELOP. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE PROMINENT FEATURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U S INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH PRIOR TO
SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME...MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH ONLY A LIMITED
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF RIDGING
ALOFT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL ADVECT MILDER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY AND MAY PRODUCE
A FEW FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THERE REMAIN
SIGNALS FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A QUASI-ZONAL REGIME
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED BUT A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE 20S THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
BUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BEFORE DAYTIME HIGHS FALL BACK
LARGELY INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODIFY ON SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY RISING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
IMPACTS:
- POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS MOST OF THE PERIOD
- VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
TODAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
DISCUSSION:
A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS SPREAD ACROSS ALL SITES WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL SITES AND MAY CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SOME DIURNAL MIXING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO
SCATTER OUT CLOUDS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. A TEMPO SCT025 WAS INCLUDED
FROM AROUND 15-19Z TODAY FOR ALL SITES TO IDENTIFY THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS CLEARING.
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL BE N-
NE 6-10 KTS TODAY. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...WHITE
SHORT TERM...MELO
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...MELO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page