412
FXUS63 KIND 050539
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1239 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SINGLE DIGIT LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT
- CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF INDIANAPOLIS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
- DRY FOR THE WEEKEND, WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
OVERALL FAIR, ALBEIT COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY
AS WEAK STACKED RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA, AMID OVERALL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PAST A STRAY SNOWFLAKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT, LEAVING RATE OF TEMPERATURE DROP THE MAIN FORECAST
FOCUS. WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS AS OF 940 PM EST UNDER 10 MPH WILL
BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED GENERALLY BELOW 10 DEGREES, HAVE BUMPED LOW TEMPERATURES
UP A COUPLE DEGREES WITH HIGHER, YET OVERCAST STRATUS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. STILL EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOW
TEENS OVER LESS EXPOSED AND/OR UNDER THICKER CLOUD DECKS THROUGH
DAWN
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS ON
TRACKING OF A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A STUBBORN BLANKET OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 850MB. ANY RESIDUAL FLURRIES ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THIS INVERSION SHARPENS. WHILE SOME
LOCALIZED MIXING MAY LEAD TO TRANSIENT BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST THIS
AFTERNOON, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERCAST
WILL LIKELY LOWER AND FILL BACK IN TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE HAMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER, BUT WITH THE COLD AIR MASS ALREADY
IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY.
THE THERMAL PROFILE SHOWS A CLASSIC CLIPPER SIGNATURE, LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT HIGH EFFICIENCY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SATURATED DGZ.
BEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE MOST
MODELS ARE HONING IN ON A SOLUTION OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF LIGHT
FLUFFY SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO TO MONITOR INVOLVES THE WARM NOSE IDENTIFIED IN
SOME OF THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS; IF THE DGZ REMAINS DRY WHILE LOWER
LEVELS SATURATE, WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW. CURRENT CONFIDENCE FAVORS SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE A LOW-END OUTLIER.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY A PATTERN SHIFT AS THE DEEP
EASTERN US TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO RELAX. FRIDAY STARTS ON A CHILLY
NOTE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE MORNING. ANY SNOW
LOOKS TO EXIT BY LATE MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THE
AFTERNOON ONWARDS. SURFACE HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW
40S, PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, THIS WARMUP WILL BE BRIEF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
SETTLING IN FOR SATURDAY, DROPPING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S. DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS STEADILY GROWING IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND EPS SHOWS
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN US BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL PLACE CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME, OPENING THE DOOR FOR A MUCH MILDER AIR
MASS. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE
POSSIBLE, REPRESENTING A 20 TO 30-DEGREE SWING FROM RECENT
VALUES.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION LATER NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
ENSEMBLE SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY.
ONE SCENARIO DEPICTS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES EJECTING A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. AN ALTERNATE, DRIER SCENARIO KEEPS THE
STRONGEST FORCING TO OUR WEST, LEAVING INDIANA UNDER A WARM, DRY
RIDGE. GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES, HAVE OPTED FOR BROAD LOW-END POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
IMPACTS:
- PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR
BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
- NORTHERLY WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK, SUSTAINED
7-10KT IN THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF IFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS DUE TO A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPPING LOW
CLOUDS. A TEMPO SCT025 WAS INCLUDED FOR ALL SITES LATER TODAY TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LAF/IND LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR AN EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS. LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO ROLL IN AS WELL.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 6-10KT DURING THE DAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...AGM
SHORT TERM...WHITE
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...MELO
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