061
FXUS63 KIND 051152
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
652 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED FLURRIES AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
- SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW NORTHEAST OF I-65 FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY MIX IN BRIEFLY TO WEST
OF I-65
- COLD AND DRY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED VERY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA UNDERNEATH A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND OBSERVATIONS DO DEPICT SOME CLEARING THOUGH OVER FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES AND EVEN NEAR WARREN COUNTY IN FAR NW CENTRAL IN. THESE
AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT ARE COOLER WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
EAST ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING, BUT ANY SPOTS THAT
MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT WILL COOL MORE SUBSTANTIALLY. EXPECT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS DECK APPEARS TO HAVE NO INTENTION OF
GOING TODAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION KEEPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE
INVERSION GRADUALLY ERODING LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO MARGINAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE, BUT
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SUBTLE DISTURBANCE.
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
N/NE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. IF ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP,
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY NEAR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS
LIMITED THOUGH GIVEN THE MARGINAL MOISTURE AND FORCING EXPECTED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT
SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX IN FOR SOME AREAS IF THE DGZ REMAINS DRY
(LACK OF ICE NUCLEI) WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER BENEATH IT. SOME
GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DUE TO
VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR THE MARGINAL SETUP. HOWEVER, EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY SO LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEPENING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST. A SURFACE LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SWATH OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW IMPACTING THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF RIDGING ALOFT
ADVECT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
FRIDAY AS FIRST A SURFACE TROUGH AND THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL QUICKLY EXPAND SOUTH AROUND AND JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A
SWATH OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE AN INCH OVER FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM BULGE IN THE 850-
750MB LAYER THAT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FURTHER TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE REGION WHERE MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER AND TEMPS WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE WARMER. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A NARROW AXIS
OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AS THE PREVALENT PRECIP TYPE DISPLACED ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
PRIMARY SWATH OF SNOW. AT THIS TIME...THAT AXIS IS LIKELY TO ALIGN A
SHORT DISTANCE WEST OF I-65 BUT THIS MAY STILL FLUCTUATE. ANY ICE
ACCRUAL WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A HUNDREDTH OR TWO BUT THE GROUND IS
FROZEN TO A DEPTH OF SEVERAL INCHES IN THE WAKE OF OUR RECENT
EXTENDED STRETCH OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
A MINUSCULE AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SLICK SPOTS QUICKLY. ANY LOCALIZED IMPACTS SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY AS LIGHT PRECIP ENDS AND TEMPS WARM TO JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE
REMAIN SIGNALS FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AS A QUASI-ZONAL REGIME ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY. A LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PULLING AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY WARRANTED BEYOND LATE TUESDAY
BUT LACK OF A MORE CONSISTENT SCENARIO PRECLUDES INTRODUCING HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY BUT THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL USHER IN A FRESH SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO WILL
REMAIN IN THE TEENS SATURDAY WITH 20S TO THE SOUTHWEST. RECOVERY
BEGINS SUNDAY WITH A 10-15 DEGREE JUMP IN TEMPS FROM SATURDAY...
EVENTUALLY RISING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW TO MID 50S POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER WABASH
VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
IMPACTS:
- PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
- FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NEAR LAF
BETWEEN 17-24Z TODAY
- IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY
DISCUSSION:
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING FOR A FEW SITES, BUT CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IFR OR WORSE CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO OCCUR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY NEAR
LAF AFTER 17Z. A PROB30 WAS INCLUDED FOR LAF. FLURRIES ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT IND AT THIS TIME, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELO
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...MELO
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