253
FXUS63 KIND 052329
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
629 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED FLURRIES AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
- SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW NORTHEAST OF I-74 FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY MIX IN BRIEFLY TO WEST
OF I-74
- COLD AND DRY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WITHIN BROAD NW FLOW IS LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE OVERCAST
SKIES ARE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE REST OF CENTRAL INDIANA, BUT THE
SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD KEEP TO ALONG AND NE OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE KOKOMO REGION AS THEIR
LOW LEVEL SATURATION DURATION IS MAXIMIZED.
OVERNIGHT, THE MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AHEAD OF A
MUCH MORE PROMINENT MID LEVEL LOW. THIS, ALONG WITH CONTINUED CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVEL TONIGHT, WITH LOWS TOMORROW
MORNING ONLY A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NE HALF, BEGINNING AROUND 12Z OVER KOKOMO,
AND PUSHING INTO THE INDIANAPOLIS REGION AROUND 13 TO 14Z. A
MAJORITY OF THE P-TYPE WILL CONSIST OF SNOWFALL, BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED SW FLOW,
OF WHICH WILL APPROACH AND POTENTIALLY EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK ON
THE SW FLANK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, LEADING TO A CORRIDOR OF
FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR A
LINE FROM GREENCASTLE TO BLOOMINGTON, BUT ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON
PLACEMENT OF THIS NARROW CORRIDOR STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT VARIANCE.
TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION WITHIN THIS NARROW SWATH SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
LESS THAN 0.05". TO THE WEST OF THIS SWATH, VERY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE MID LEVEL SATURATION STARTS TO DEPART.
AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS, THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A MODEST GRADIENT
FROM ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR TO FAR NE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
DUE BOTH TO QPF DIFFERENCES AND LOWER SLRS THE CLOSER YOU GET TO I-
74. PEAK SNOW TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE MUNCIE
TO WINCHESTER REGION WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDING SETS UP, WITH SNOW
TOTALS OF 0.5" OR LESS NEAR INDIANAPOLIS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH ONE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BEFORE
TEMPERATURES START TO TREND WARMER. MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SIT UNDER UPPER NW FLOW, BRINGING IN AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS AND WARMING TO UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH SURFACE FLOW
STARTING OUT FROM THE NORTH AND EARLY MORNING TO MIDDAY LAKE
ENHANCED FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE.
FROM THE START OF THE NEW WEEK TO MIDWEEK, UPPER FLOW WILL BE MORE
ZONAL WITH RIDGING AT TIMES WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LARGELY
DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S PROBABLE MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL START THE WEEK OFF
BUT BY MIDWEEK INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
WHILE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME, WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR HOW TRENDS EVOLVE PARTICULARLY WITH TIMING AND
TEMPERATURES AS THAT WILL IMPACT THE TYPE OF PRECIP WE GET. FOR NOW
RAIN SEEMS PLAUSIBLY DOMINATE IF WE STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
PASSING SYSTEMS, BUT A MIX OF PRECIP WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
ONE HAZARD TO WATCH FOR IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ICE JAMS FORMING AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG
RIVERS INCREASE. IF WE END UP WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN LATE
WEEK, THIS COULD FURTHER EXACERBATE RIVER FLOODING HAZARDS.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 629 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
IMPACTS:
- CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS EVENING...IFR PRE-DAWN
- VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR/IFR IN -SN WITHIN 12Z-18Z AT KLAF/KIND
- FZDZ LIKELY AT KHUF/POSSIBLE AT KBMG WITHIN 12Z-18Z
- MAINLY IFR VIS FRIDAY MORNING-MIDDAY, LOW-MVFR POSSIBLE LATE DAY
DISCUSSION:
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING
CEILINGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH SLOWLY INCREASING
COVERAGE OF MVFR LEADING TO ABRUPT ARRIVAL OF IFR DECKS PRE-DAWN.
LIKELY BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AT
KBMG/KHUF BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW-MVFR THRU MIDDAY-AFTERNOON
HOURS.
CORRESPONDING OVERALL WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIOD OF -SN WITHIN
12Z-18Z, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FZDZ AT KBMG AND LIKELY AT KHUF...WITH
-SN DROPPING VISIBILITY TO MVFR AND PERHAPS PREDOMINANTLY IFR AT
KIND/KLAF 13Z-16Z, WITH VFR VIS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS
BY 18Z. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RULES AT KHUF WHERE CIGS MAY
VARY WIDELY AS WELL AS POSSIBLY SCT OUT WITHIN 06Z-15Z...WITH MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED AT KHUF 12Z-15Z.
WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY FROM SOUTHERLY
EARLY THIS EVENING, TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 09Z...AND QUICKLY FROM WEST
AROUND 15Z FRIDAY TO NORTHWEST BY 18Z. LIGHTER FLOW SUSTAINED
AROUND 5-10KT INTO MOST OF FRIDAY MORNING, WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22-25KT AFTER 18Z.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UPDIKE
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...AGM
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