237
FXUS63 KIND 061329
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
829 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH A MIX OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FARTHER SOUTHWEST
- TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, BUT RETURN TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT
- COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING
TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 816 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN GRAUPEL AS
THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM ABOUT LAFAYETTE TO
INDIANAPOLIS AS OF 8AM. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE APPEARANCE OF
RADAR DATA OUT OF KIND. A MORE CELLULAR APPEARANCE IS NOTED, AND
ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF IND ALSO SHOW A SMALL POSITIVE AREA WHERE
SATURATION AND FORCING IS CONCENTRATED. ADDITIONALLY, A WARM NOSE
IS NOTED BELOW THIS LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
RIMING, FURTHER REDUCING THE PREVALENCE OF PURE SNOW. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS WARM NOSE IS ABOVE FREEZING AT ABOUT
1KM, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AS
THE COLUMN FULLY SATURATES.
GOING FORWARD, WE SEE UPSTREAM TRENDS OF A TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD (A MORE SMOOTH
FUZZY APPEARANCE TO RADAR REFLECTIVITY). AREAS THAT SEE MOSTLY
SNOW WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM, THOUGH RATES COULD BRIEFLY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SINCE
WEAK INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITHIN THE DGZ ACROSS THESE PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE SITUATION BECOMES A BIT TRICKY FURTHER WEST WHERE WARMING ALOFT
IS MORE PREVALENT. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL TO MIX WITH OR TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR
THIS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. ACARS SOUNDINGS HINT AT DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS WITH CEILINGS OF 10,000 FEET AT TERRE
HAUTE. THIS MAY KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN
CONFINED TO A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM INDIANAPOLIS TO
BLOOMINGTON AND POINTS WESTWARD WHERE SATURATION IS DEEPER. SOME
REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE ALREADY COMING IN ACROSS THE
INDIANAPOLIS AREA. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE CLIPPER AND RADAR TRENDS, WE EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN ENDING AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA
AND POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS 17Z FURTHER EAST.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING...
SKIES WERE CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, WHILE MID CLOUDS FROM AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WERE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WHERE SKIES HAD CLEARED AND WINDS HAD NOT
INCREASED YET AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN INTO THE
TEENS. THESE READINGS WILL REBOUND SOME AS THE MID CLOUD MOVES IN
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE APPROACHING 12Z. AREAS FARTHER TO THE
EAST MAY ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES DIP SOME AS THE CLEARING PROGRESSES
EAST.
TODAY...
THE UPPER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW, ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT, WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS MORNING. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM AN
UPPER JET WILL WORK WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE
PRECIPITATION.
BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, SO
HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY CATEGORY OR HIGHER) WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH LOWER POPS TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS, COMBINED WITH BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
PRIMARY OR SECONDARY PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND IN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO GET FURTHER NORTHEAST, WITH NOW ONLY THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING A SNOW ONLY FORECAST.
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA, SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED, WITH AMOUNTS DIMINISHING TO THE SOUTHWEST. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CREATE
SLICK AREAS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE COLD ADVECTION.
TONIGHT...
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, SO WENT WITH A FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWER MENTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE AIRMASS MOVING IN,
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO IN
THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT,
BUT WIND CHILLS WILL FLIRT WITH COLD ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PORTIONS
OF THE EXTREME EASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
CLOUDS FROM THE LAKE WILL KEEP READINGS WARMER TO THE WEST, WITH
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE MORE COMMON.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SATURDAY COULD SUPPORT FLURRIES
AT TIMES THOUGH. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA.
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO WEAKER FORCING
AND MORE MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN. LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT THOUGH OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTHWEST LIKE SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT. THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY FOR NOW AS ANY MODELS SUGGESTING LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ARE OUTLIERS. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS AND ADD SNOW CHANCES IF WARRANTED.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A COLDER
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. LOOK FOR HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S AND LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO TEENS
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO WARM UP QUICKLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA COULD WARM INTO THE 40S BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ATTEMPTS TO PARTIALLY MERGE WITH
THE POLAR JET TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOMALOUS GULF
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN, BUT EXACT
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BE ALL RAIN TO START AS SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS WARM TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S AND 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES TOWARDS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND
DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS LOW POPS PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES GENERALLY SHOW DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH
UPPER TROUGHING WHICH SUPPORTS WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY
MIXING IN TOWARDS LATE WEEK.
THE QUICK WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES
WILL LEAD TO GROWING CONCERNS FOR ICE JAMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ALONG RIVERS. SOME OUTLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS WELL WHICH COULD
ENHANCE THE THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS RIVER
ICE BEGINS TO THAW.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 559 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
IMPACTS:
- VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR IN -SN WITHIN 13Z-16Z AT KLAF/KIND
- FZDZ POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT KHUF/KBMG WITHIN 13Z-16Z
- WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT
DISCUSSION:
A SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE SITES MAINLY IN
THE 13-16Z TIME FRAME, WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. SOME BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOUTHERN SITES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MAINLY SNOW AT THE NORTHERN
SITES.
AFTER THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS AFTERNOON, MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
MESOSCALE...ECKHOFF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MELO
AVIATION...50
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