578
FXUS63 KIND 062302
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY
AND SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FROM A DUSTING TO
A HALF OF AN INCH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, BUT RETURN TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT. PATCHY BLACK ICE AND SLICK SPOTS
POSSIBLE BY MORNING.
- COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING
TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
- LIGHT MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
- ADDITIONAL MULTIPLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY
- ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A CONCERN NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS PASSED TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
AFTER A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA, LOW STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
30KT. DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT DROPPED. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT LAST AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
A SEPARATE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY DROPS SOUTHWARD. LOW-
LEVEL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN INITIAL WAVE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 22Z-04Z. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES GIVEN MODEST LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY (15-25
J/KG 3CAPE). BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT, FROM A DUSTING TO A HALF OF AN INCH.
ONCE THE INITIAL WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH OF OUR AREA, HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE-
ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS SURFACE WINDS RELAX (RESULTING IN
REDUCED FETCH OFF OF THE LAKE), FLURRIES COULD PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LAKE FLOW COULD
PERSIST A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, IT'S ALL DOWNHILL ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES THIS
EVENING. READINGS QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS BY
MORNING. WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DESPITE THE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. ANY MELTED SNOW/SLEET/MIX FRONT EARLIER
LIKELY RE-FREEZES BY MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY BLACK ICE
AND SLICK SPOTS. THANKFULLY, THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS PASSES
MAINLY TO OUR EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND A BIT OF A REBOUND. THOUGH NOT ABOVE
FREEZING, HIGH IN THE MID 20S ARE LIKELY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. WITH IT INCREASING MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE COLD AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
ELEVATED WAA WILL OCCUR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ABOVE A SLOWLY
RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION. A STRIPE OVER LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGEST FGEN. FURTHER WEST, NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO WITH THE SATURATION LAYER ENTIRELY -6C OR
WARMER. MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX LIGHT
SLEET/SNOW EVENT AT THE MOMENT AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE VERY LIGHT
AS FORCING IS WEAK.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS. STRONG 850MB WAA WITH GEFS AND EPS ANOMALIES AROUND
8-10 C ABOVE A SLOWER RETREATING NEAR SURFACE COLD LAYER (THANKS TO
THE SNOWPACK) WILL LEAD TO A CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. FOR NOW, HAVE REALLY BUMPED UP CLOUD COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO BUMPED NBM TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD FEEDBACK.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MERGES WITH THE POLAR JET TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS.
LOOK FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN,
BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, A LIGHT
ICE EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES TOWARDS THURSDAY AND BEYOND
DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS LOW POPS PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES GENERALLY SHOW DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH
UPPER TROUGHING WHICH SUPPORTS WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY
MIXING IN LATE WEEK. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC EURO IS THE LARGEST
OUTLIER WITH QPF SUGGESTING A SLEET/ICE STORM POTENTIAL NEXT
THURSDAY.
THE QUICK WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES
WILL LEAD TO GROWING CONCERNS FOR ICE JAMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ALONG RIVERS. SOME OUTLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS WELL WHICH COULD
ENHANCE THE THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS RIVER
ICE BEGINS TO THAW.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
IMPACTS:
- MVFR TO NEAR-IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z
- LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 04Z, LITTLE TO NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS
- BRIEFING NNW WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS THROUGH 04Z
DISCUSSION:
MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AFTER 16Z. AT LEAST
SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE
MAY BE A FEW ADDITIONAL NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS, BUT
EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 02Z.
WINDS THEN RELAX TO AROUND 4-8KTS AFTER 06Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ECKHOFF
LONG TERM...CROSBIE
AVIATION...WHITE
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