068
FXUS63 KIND 071751
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1251 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NORTHEAST WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR AT TIMES MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK
- ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A CONCERN NEXT WEEK
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
PRIMARY CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING CONCERN A LONG AND
RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF STRATUS ORIGINATING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
COLD NORTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED THIS LAKE-ENHANCED BAND OF CLOUD
COVER TO WORK ITS WAY DEEP INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. RADAR IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN SOME LIGHT RETURNS INDICATING POSSIBLE FLURRY ACTIVITY.
WE'VE ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS COINCIDENT WITH THIS BAND OF CLOUD COVER.
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS NOT GENERALLY HANDLING THE CLOUD DECK
ALL THAT WELL. SO WE'VE MADE SOME MANUAL EDITS TO THE HOURLY SKY
COVER GRIDS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THAT, WE'VE ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO TAKE
OVER SHOWING DECREASING SKY COVER. THE REASON FOR THIS IS DUE TO
WEAKENING NORTH WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT SKY COVER TO INCREASE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
THE OLD AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A GROWING BAND OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WAS MOVING
SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN INDIANA. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE MID-TEENS IN THE FAR EAST TO AROUND 30 SOUTHWEST.
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OF CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS WILL MAKE SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
MOST OTHER AREAS. THE BAND WILL MEANDER A BIT AS THE FETCH OFF THE
LAKE DOES, BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SNOW FROM
THESE CLOUDS, WITH FAR NORTHERN AREAS THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME
FLURRIES IF THEY OCCUR.
THE VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN USA WILL INFLUENCE THE
EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA THE MOST, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO RETURN TO 20 DEGREES THERE. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S WILL BE COMMON.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN AREA. HOWEVER, SNOW WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY
NEAR SURFACE LAYER INITIALLY. WILL GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS
NORTHEAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
THE LINGERING COLD AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES EAST,
WITH TEENS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
THOUGH ACROSS FAR EAST/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO
A MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH. FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
DEPICT A SATURATED DGZ AND SUFFICIENT FORCING. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF AN INCH OR SO APPEAR POSSIBLE AT THIS
TIME, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACT DETAILS. THE MAIN CAVEAT
IS HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW
LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR THE LOW-MID LEVEL DRY LAYER TO SATURATE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY DUE TO COLDER AIR
SETTLING INTO THE REGION EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND AND CLOUDS LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR EAST
TO 20S FURTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
WARM UP QUICKLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN. THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA COULD WARM INTO THE 40S BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO WELL IN
THE 50S FURTHER SOUTHWEST.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ATTEMPTS TO PARTIALLY MERGE WITH
THE POLAR JET TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO
STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS. LOOK FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN, BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAK WITH
ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED THE DISTURBANCE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH LEADING TO QUESTIONS ON
HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTS AND HOW MUCH FORCING IS IN PLACE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY AS POPS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IN FUTURE UPDATES. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ALL RAIN AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES TOWARDS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND
DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS LOW POPS PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES GENERALLY SHOW DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING
THE REGION. THIS SUPPORTS AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTING AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION COULD MIX IN MID-LATE WEEK AS DECREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT SUPPORTS COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE QUICK WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL LEAD
TO GROWING CONCERNS FOR ICE JAMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ALONG RIVERS. GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ENHANCE THE THREAT, BUT
MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS RAINFALL AMOUNTS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS RIVER ICE
BEGINS TO THAW.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
IMPACTS:
- MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
- LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR IND EARLY SUNDAY
DISCUSSION:
LAKE-EFFECT STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOST PREVALENT FROM LAF TO IND, WITH
CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-3500 FEET AGL. LAF HAS RECENTLY DIPPED INTO
MVFR TERRITORY, HOWEVER, WITH A 2900 FT CEILING. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR
MORE COMMON. STRATUS BEGINS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL
ALLOW MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY
AWAY FROM ALL THE TERMINALS, SO SNOW WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. IND STANDS THE BEST (ALBEIT QUITE LOW) CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS FROM THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY DRIFT WESTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TAKING ON AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT ON SUNDAY. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ECKHOFF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MELO
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
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