189
FXUS63 KIND 080513
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1213 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN
INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR AT TIMES MID TO LATE
WEEK NEXT WEEK
- ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A CONCERN NEXT WEEK WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OVER INDIANA, KY AND OH. THE HIGH EXTENDED WELL NORTH ACROSS
TO MICHIGAN AND THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORT WAVE WITHIN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER IL AND
WI. THESE WERE DIVING SE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. RADAR SHOWS SOME
VIRGA ACROSS WI AND IL, PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST TOWARD INDIANA. LOWER
LEVELS REMAINED VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS STILL
LINGERING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS UPSTREAM TO THE AROUND 10 ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.
MODELS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE VIRGA AS SEEN ON RADAR TO DRIFT FARTHER EAST,
IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, SHOULD ANY SNOW
ACTUALLY OCCUR. LATEST HRRR SHOWS VERY DIMINISHED PRECIPITATION
TRENDS OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE FORCING DYNAMICS PASS. THUS
CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LOW, BUT NON-ZERO. MAY
TREND ONGOING POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER.
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND THE EXPECTED WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT,
ONGOING LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS APPEAR TO BE ON THE MARK.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
ABOUT THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY EVOLVED
FROM STRATUS TO STRATOCUMULUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST, THOUGH THE HIGH'S CENTER IS NOT QUITE HERE YET. WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS OFF THE LAKE, BROAD SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING, AND THE
DEPENDENCE OF STRATOCUMULUS ON DIURNAL HEATING, WE EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
WE DO NOT EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME COMPLETELY CLEAR, HOWEVER, AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH CIRRUS IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE WESTERN SKY. CIRRUS SHOULD REMAIN THIN
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT
RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A RESIDUAL SNOWPACK, TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROP FAST AFTER
00Z BEFORE LEVELING OFF AS THICKER MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE THEREFORE TRICKY SINCE THEY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THICKER CLOUD COVER ARRIVES. WE'VE TRENDED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND NEAR TO ABOVE GUIDANCE ACROSS
THE WEST, SINCE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.
FOCUSING BACK ON THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM...GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME BROAD MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, LEADS
TO A NARROW AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
HELP WITH OVERALL LIFTING. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING COINCIDENT WITH
THIS REGION OF FORCING. SOME CAMS ARE A BIT AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL, THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE IS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH AROUND AN INCH ON AVERAGE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
PLACEMENT OF THE BAND, AS GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT
ON ITS EXACT LOCATION. A LOOSE CONSENSUS PUTS IT OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. AS SUCH, WE'VE INCLUDED A BROAD
AREA OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM INDIANAPOLIS NORTHEASTWARD.
A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS A
VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR BETWEEN 900MB AND 800MB. THIS COULD EASILY
PREVENT MOST OF THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF THE PRIMARY AXIS OF LIFT. IF ANYTHING, THIS LIKELY KEEPS
THE SNOW BAND NARROW AS LIGHTER SNOW ON THE EDGES FAILS TO REACH THE
GROUND. ONLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE BAND COULD THE SNOW BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO REACH THE SURFACE. TONIGHT'S FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE REFINED AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW BAND.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE A WELCOME EXPECTATION DURING
THE COMING WEEK. A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK ONWARD, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS FAIRLY HIGH AT
THIS POINT.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO DEAMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
WEEK, WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ZONAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AND EVEN SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A FRONTAL
ZONE THAT MAY SET UP TO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK, ALONG WITH
GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES THAT GROW SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME, LEAD TO A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION, WHICH WILL
KEEP CHANCES FAIRLY LOW FOR THE MOST PART, AND UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO TYPE.
THE EARLY WEEK WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY, WITH THE TAIL END STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND A MODEST UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXING NORTH, THOUGH
AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND STEADILY SOUTHWARD WITH THIS PRECIP,
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL GET, AND INDEED WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AT ALL.
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON THEIR
HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE AND POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT, OR WITH A POTENTIAL STRONGER
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. LOW CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED
ROUGHLY FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARD, WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO TYPE AT
TIMES, BUT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE.
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAT TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, LIKELY WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LIKELY SETTLING
SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF SEASONAL NORMALS, WHICH, AT LEAST FOR
INDIANAPOLIS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 20S FOR LOWS
CURRENTLY.
THE QUICK WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL LEAD
TO GROWING CONCERNS FOR ICE JAMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ALONG RIVERS. GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ENHANCE THE THREAT, BUT
MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS RAINFALL AMOUNTS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS RIVER ICE
BEGINS TO THAW.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
IMPACTS:
- LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR IND IN THE FIRST QUARTER OR
SO OF THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION:
A SYSTEM WILL BRING A BAND OF SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS SUBLIMATING MUCH
OF THE INITIAL SNOW BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
GIVEN THIS, WILL NOT MENTION ANY SNOW AT THE SITES. WOULD NOT RULE
SOME FLURRIES AT KIND, BUT THESE WOULD HAVE NO VISIBILITY IMPACTS.
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES
WILL REMAIN VFR.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
SHORT TERM...ECKHOFF
LONG TERM...NIELD/MELO
AVIATION...50
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