582
FXUS63 KIND 080751
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
251 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST INTO MID-MORNING, WITH ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
RETURNING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
- ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A CONCERN THIS WEEK WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE, BUT A NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE THE
STRONGEST FORCING.
RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A BAND OF ECHOES EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE ONLY SHOWN SNOW REACHING THE GROUND
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA WITHIN THE STRONGEST PART OF THE BAND.
THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 900MB,
WHICH IS SUBLIMATING THE SNOW BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
EVENTUALLY, BELIEVE THE BAND OF SNOW WILL SATURATE THE DRY LAYER
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS THERE, WITH DRY POPS
ELSEWHERE. MAY INCLUDE A NARROW BAND OF LIKELY POPS IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON TRENDS IN GUIDANCE AND RADAR.
MOST POPS WILL BE IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN INCH, BUT IF THE MAIN BAND SETS UP IN THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW BAND.
OTHERWISE, ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT PERSISTING. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH AS WELL. THESE WILL PRODUCE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MOISTURE/FORCING WON'T BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 30S
SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 FAR NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THAT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
LATER AS MORE/LESS CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO WARMER/COOLER NUMBERS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM UP QUICKLY DUE TO INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA COULD WARM INTO THE 40S BY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TO THE 50S FURTHER SOUTHWEST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FORECAST.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY LEADING TO A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN TOWARDS MIDWEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY IT APPEARED THERE WERE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY, BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER. WHILE SOME MOISTURE LIKELY STILL ADVECTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE PARENT
TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. POPS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS REASON AND THE FORECAST NOW
APPEARS MOSTLY DRY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THOUGH DUE TO WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SO LOW 20% POPS REMAIN LATE
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY PROVIDING
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD END UP COOLER IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES IN SOONER DURING THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A QUICKER SOLUTION WITH FORECASTED TEMPERATURES NOW ABOUT 3-
5 DEGREES COOLER.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS THERE IS STILL A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. GUIDANCE
SUGGEST MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, BUT LARGE
VARIABILITY LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD, WILL STICK WITH BLENDED WHICH KEEPS LOW POPS
FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING LONG
TERM GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
DETAILS IS VERY LOW THIS FAR OUT. DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL MID-LATE WEEK.
THE QUICK WARM UP EARLY IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AT
TIMES WILL LEAD TO GROWING CONCERNS FOR ICE JAMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS. GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ENHANCE
THE THREAT, BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS QPF RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS RIVER
ICE BEGINS TO THAW.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
IMPACTS:
- LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR IND IN THE FIRST QUARTER OR
SO OF THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION:
A SYSTEM WILL BRING A BAND OF SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS SUBLIMATING MUCH
OF THE INITIAL SNOW BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
GIVEN THIS, WILL NOT MENTION ANY SNOW AT THE SITES. WOULD NOT RULE
SOME FLURRIES AT KIND, BUT THESE WOULD HAVE NO VISIBILITY IMPACTS.
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES
WILL REMAIN VFR.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MELO
AVIATION...50
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