579
FXUS63 KIND 220445
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY EAST OF I-65.
- DRY AND COLD WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
- MORE PRECIPITATION WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID-LATE
NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
LOW CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY EXPAND FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA, AND CAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT LATER
TONIGHT, THOUGH MAYBE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALL THAT WERE REQUIRED TO THE GOING FORECAST.
EXPECTATIONS REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME AS THE PRIOR PACKAGE, WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE
AREA, WITH THE FOCUS PARTICULARLY UPON THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
CENTRAL INDIANA, WHERE AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
WEAK TO MODERATE FGEN AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY CENTERED IN THE DGZ
BETWEEN 700-600 MB HAS PRODUCED BANDS OF FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM
THE WEST THROUGH 22Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY ERODE
FROM THE WEST AND HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PHASING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL SUPPORT A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER BY EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG
DCVA COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OWING TO
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN ZONES (AFTER 06Z)
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
U.S HWY 231. POP DOWNWARD TRENDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON REFLECT THE
DIMINISHING DEEP LAYER LIFT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO OHIO WITH
SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WANING IN EASTERN ZONES. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NE COUNTIES
WITH LESS THAN 0.5 INCH EXPECTED FOR AREAS ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING THE INDY METRO AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, FAIRLY
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS FROM 25-30 MPH EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW, UNIFORM N-NW BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA (850 TEMPS FALLING TO -12 TO -14
C) COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 2-3 C WILL SUPPORT A WELL ORGANIZED LES BAND TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS LES BAND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT INTO THE NE PART OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY, ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR NE COUNTIES BY 12Z
MONDAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER IN THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THANKS TO INFLUENCE FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE, THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY,
WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK IN ALLOWING READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
LATER IN THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE DETAILS HERE AS
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SOME SOLUTIONS PLACE THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH (INCLUDING THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF), ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA, WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME
SNOW TO MIX IN IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OTHERWISE, RAIN WOULD BE THE PRIMARY TYPE WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IF THE LOW TAKES A NORTHERN TRACK AND ALLOWS
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN SOMETIME NEXT
WEEKEND, BRINGING SOME RAIN AND POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
IMPACTS:
- WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AFTER 11Z...MAINLY AT LAF AND IND.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNTS AFTER 12Z SUN.
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NW INDIANA WILL CROSS OUR
STATE THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON
GOES19, UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WI, POISED TO PUSH INTO
INDIANA. HRRR SUGGESTS LIMITED SNOW SHOWER PRODUCTION AS THIS SYSTEM
PASSES THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST SATURATION MAINLY
WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, AND THIS WOULD MAINLY IMPACT
LAF AND IND. THUS HAVE INCLUDED VCSH MENTIONS AT THOSE LOCATIONS
WHILE BMG AND HUF JUST REMAIN WITH SOME MVFR CIGS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER INDIANA AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD, GUSTY, NORTHWEST
WINDS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNTS WILL BE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. GUSTS WILL
REMAIN AFTER 230000Z, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 20-25 KNTS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NIELD
SHORT TERM...CROSBIE
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...PUMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page