208
FXUS63 KIND 221028
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
528 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY EAST OF A KOKOMO-
INDIANAPOLIS-GREENSBURG LINE.
- WINDY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
- COLD WEATHER ON MONDAY.
- NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO, WHILE A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, NOSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WAS
RESULTING IN A COLD NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA,
AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS BROAD SYSTEM WAS
PROVIDING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING INDIANA.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED NO ECHOS WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.
TODAY...
THE DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS INDIANA THIS
MORNING, REACHING OHIO BY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW, PROVIDING SOME FORCING MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. HRRR FAILS TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AS THIS FORCING PASSES. COLD AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SPILL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO THE
STRONG HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THUS MOISTURE REMAINS A PROBLEM
FOR THIS SYSTEM. THIS DRY AIR WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD SNOW TODAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A THIN
LAYER OF DRY AIR AND WIDE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS. WHERE THE
BEST SURGE OF FORCING IS FROM THE PIVOTING UPPER LOW, MODELS SHOW A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH MUCH
SMALLER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.
STILL PWATS IN THE AREA REMAIN NEAR 0.3, WHICH IS QUITE LOW. THUS
WILL TRY TO KEEP POPS LIMITED TO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THIS UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY PASSES.
ALSO OF NOTE, A WINDY DAY WILL BE EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES
EAST, A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN NEAR
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE TODAY, LOOK FOR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.
TONIGHT...
COLD, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS INDIANA, WITH A FAVORABLE
FETCH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW STREAMING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING OKK, AID AND MIE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT LE BANDS DRIFTING SOUTH WITHIN THIS FLOW
OVERNIGHT. AS USUAL, MOST MOISTURE WILL BE DEPLETED FROM THE BANDS
AS THEY REACH OUR AREA HOWEVER, LIGHT SNOWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE, COLD AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL SATURATION TRAPPED
BENEATH A MID LEVEL INVERSION. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS WITH THE TAIL END OF A LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW
EVENT ON MONDAY. WHILE THE PRIMARY MOISTURE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST, LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A SECONDARY VORT MAX DIVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL SATURATION. THIS
SETUP IS CONDUCIVE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES, THOUGH DRY AIR FILTERING IN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING AN END TO ANY MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL REMAIN SHARPLY BELOW NORMAL, STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE
THE UPPER 20S UNDER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
A PATTERN SHIFT COMMENCES TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO
THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR A ROBUST RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WAA
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT A NOTABLE JUMP IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE AMPLIFICATION OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL FURTHER ACCELERATE
THIS WARMING TREND. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY HIGHS
WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS
THE MID 50S IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. SKIES WILL TRANSITION FROM SUNNY
TO INCREASINGLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK, THOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. ON THURSDAY, A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE INITIAL WARMING MAY START THE
EVENT AS RAIN, PROGGED WET-BULB TEMPERATURES AND STRONG CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY BRING A TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE TRANSITION
ZONE WILL BE.
THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO, SUPPORTED BY A SEGMENT OF THE GEFS MEMBERS,
KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTH, WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE WARM
SECTOR AND POTENTIALLY INTRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED
THUNDER RATHER THAN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER, THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A RETURN TO SEASONABLE AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
SKIES AND A HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. LOOKING TOWARD
SATURDAY, ANOTHER FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE PROGGED TO SURGE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
IMPACTS:
- WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
- LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAY BRING BRIEF IFR VSBYS
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 30 KTS AFTER 12Z
DISCUSSION:
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LAF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LESS FREQUENT SNOW AT IND. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END TOWARDS 20Z WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT TIMES
AFTERWARDS. VSBYS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR TO VFR BUT BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR WITH MVFR BEING
PREDOMINANT. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25KTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30KTS FROM 15Z TO 23Z.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...WHITE
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