758
FXUS63 KIND 222004
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
304 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY EAST OF A KOKOMO-INDIANAPOLIS-
GREENSBURG LINE.
- WINDY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
- NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
- WARMER LATE WEEK WITH ANTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS ALLOWED SNOWFALL TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR APPEARANCE HAS TRANSITIONED TO
CELLULAR AND SNOW CHARACTER IS NOW DENDRITIC IN NATURE. THIS IMPLIES
DEEPER LIFT INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE PROCESSES TAKING HOLD. THEREFORE, SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION OCCURS AROUND SUNSET. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AS MENTIONED, WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING AS NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LOST. ADDITIONALLY, LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FROM A VORT MAX ALOFT WILL EXIT EASTWARD AS WELL. THIS
DOES NOT MEAN LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL NOT CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT,
HOWEVER. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE ON
THE EAST COAST, COLD AIR ALOFT FROM RESIDUAL TROUGHING, AND MOISTURE
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHT. SINCE THESE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE MET IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND
OF LAKE MICHIGAN, OUR BEST SNOW CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS, AND
WE'VE UPPED POPS FROM NBM WHICH HAS BEEN TOO PESSIMISTIC TODAY
REGARDING SNOW CHANCES. SOME GUIDANCE, SUCH AS THE HRRR, INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A POTENT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BAND TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL, MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST LIKELY SEE A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LOW STRATUS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
ASIDE FROM SNOW, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 10KT
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30KT. GUSTS
PRIMARILY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ALLOWS GREATER PERIODIC DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING (HIGHS IN THE 20S, LOWS IN THE TEENS) THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT
TIMES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS WITH APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS, LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS, THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIND CHILLS AROUND 10F BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, WITH
AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPENING OVER THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS QUICKLY AWAY, THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS (GUSTS OVER 25 MPH) OUT OF THE SW.
ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA, INCREASING MID- HIGH CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON LIMITING
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL HELP A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL
GFS IS INDICATING LIGHT QPF, BUT APPEARS TO BE THE SOLE OUTLIER, SO
WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEAR
CENTRAL INDIANA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT PTYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH EITHER A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION OR EVENT A POTENTIAL NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WAA THIS FAR
OUT WILL JUST LEAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH AND RAIN IN THE
SOUTH. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...
A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY OVER GULF COAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE, WITH HIGHS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 50S.
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY LINGERS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
HUGE WHEN COMPARING THE GFS AND EC/GEM. GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH AROUND 100-150M
HEIGHT DIFFERENCES FROM EC/GEM. BOTH EC/GEM SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH 20F DIFFERENCES IN HIGHS
FROM GFS FOR SUNDAY. NBM HAS MORE WEIGHT WITH COLDER SOLUTION AND
WILL GO SIDE WITH THAT SOLUTION GIVEN THE LIKELY FASTER NATURE OF
THESE COLD AIRMASS.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
IMPACTS:
- WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
- LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAY BRING BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
- NW WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 KT SUSTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD, GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 KT AT TIMES DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS
DISCUSSION:
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL MAY LEAD TO BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES. FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE FROM LAF TO IND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH SOME POTENTIAL BREAKS AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 KT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT DURING PEAK DIURNAL
MIXING HOURS. GUSTS DIE DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND RETURN AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ECKHOFF
LONG TERM...CROSBIE
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
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