579
FXUS63 KIND 230436
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1136 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY EAST OF A KOKOMO-INDIANAPOLIS-
GREENSBURG LINE.
- WINDY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
- NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
- WARMER LATE WEEK WITH ANTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE COMBINED WITH WEAK MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING, AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN HAS ALLOWED FLURRIES AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST. A DEPARTING VORT MAX ALOFT HAS HELPED DECREASE THE COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. VERY MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. EXPECT GRADUAL DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT TO COOL
TEMPERATURES FURTHER, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. A
TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT WILL ALLOW BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS ALLOWED SNOWFALL TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR APPEARANCE HAS TRANSITIONED TO
CELLULAR AND SNOW CHARACTER IS NOW DENDRITIC IN NATURE. THIS IMPLIES
DEEPER LIFT INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE PROCESSES TAKING HOLD. THEREFORE, SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION OCCURS AROUND SUNSET. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AS MENTIONED, WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING AS NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LOST. ADDITIONALLY, LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FROM A VORT MAX ALOFT WILL EXIT EASTWARD AS WELL. THIS
DOES NOT MEAN LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL NOT CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT,
HOWEVER. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE ON
THE EAST COAST, COLD AIR ALOFT FROM RESIDUAL TROUGHING, AND MOISTURE
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHT. SINCE THESE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE MET IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND
OF LAKE MICHIGAN, OUR BEST SNOW CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS, AND
WE'VE UPPED POPS FROM NBM WHICH HAS BEEN TOO PESSIMISTIC TODAY
REGARDING SNOW CHANCES. SOME GUIDANCE, SUCH AS THE HRRR, INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A POTENT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BAND TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL, MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST LIKELY SEE A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LOW STRATUS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
ASIDE FROM SNOW, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 10KT
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30KT. GUSTS
PRIMARILY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ALLOWS GREATER PERIODIC DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING (HIGHS IN THE 20S, LOWS IN THE TEENS) THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT
TIMES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS WITH APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS, LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS, THIS WILL TO
WIND CHILLS AROUND 10F.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPENING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS QUICKLY AWAY, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INTENSIFY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS (GUSTS OVER 25
MPH) OUT OF THE SW. ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA, INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON LIMITING STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
HELP A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS IS INDICATING LIGHT QPF, BUT APPEARS TO BE THE
SOLE OUTLIER, SO WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEAR
CENTRAL INDIANA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT PTYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH EITHER A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION OR EVENT A POTENTIAL NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WAA THIS FAR
OUT WILL JUST LEAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH AND RAIN IN THE
SOUTH. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...
A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY'S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE 50S. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LINGERS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE HUGE WHEN COMPARING THE GFS AND
EC/GEM. GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WITH AROUND 100-150M HEIGHT DIFFERENCES FROM EC/GEM BY
SUNDAY. BOTH EC/GEM SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH 20F DIFFERENCES IN HIGHS AS COMPARED TO
THE GFS FOR SUNDAY. NBM HAS MORE WEIGHT WITH COLDER EC/GEM SOLUTION
AND WILL SIDE WITH THAT SOLUTION GIVEN THE LIKELY FASTER NATURE
OF THESE COLD AIRMASS.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
IMPACTS:
- LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES, MAINLY AT LAF AND IND
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
DISCUSSION:
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER OVER INDIANA AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST STRENGTHENS AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. GOES19 SHOWS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
OVER WI AND MI, ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCOMPANY THESE CLOUDS, HOWEVER VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. CIG HOWEVER WILL VARY FROM TIME TO TIME BETWEEN 2500FT TO
3500FT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE SATURATION WITHIN
THE LOWER LEVELS TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP, LEADING TO A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDING INTO INDIANA THROUGH
THE DAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MELO
SHORT TERM...ECKHOFF
LONG TERM...CROSBIE
AVIATION...PUMA
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