684
FXUS63 KIND 230739
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
239 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. MINIMAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A KOKOMO-
ANDERSON-RUSHVILLE LINE
- WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE TODAY.
- NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
- WARMER LATE WEEK WITH ANTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF MD AND DELAWARE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND
OVER THE PLAINS STATES, STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO OK AND
EASTERN TX. THIS WAS RESULTING IN COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
INDIANA. THE DEEP LOW WAS PROVIDING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. GOES19 SHOWS CONTINUED WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SPILLING ACROSS INDIANA, WITH
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT NOTED IN RADAR ECHOS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA STREAMING TOWARD INDIANA. RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
CONTAINED TO AREAS EAST OF I-65, WHILE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEARING
ALONG THE IL/IN STATE LINE. THE TRUE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD
APPEARS TO BE OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS.
TODAY...
STRONG RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE DEEP LOW OFF THE EAST COAST ALSO CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN BUT MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, SPILLING INTO THE INDIANA,
PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THIS SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE PRESENT, BUT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC
AND SATURATED DUE TO THE DEEP EAST COAST LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
TODAY SHOW SATURATION PERSISTING TODAY WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS. A
FEW BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING BASED UPON SATELLITE
TRENDS, HOWEVER STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT IS SUGGESTED AGAIN DUE TO
HEATING AND MIXING. STRATOCU WILL BE TRAPPED BENEATH A SHARP
INVERSION ALOFT. THUS A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WILL BE EXPECTED. GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES A FEW FLURRIES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE IN PLAY. AT THOSE
LOCATIONS, CONTINUED THIN AND SMALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD RESULT IN
SLIPPERY SURFACES. THE CORE OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER INDIANA
TODAY. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND -13C, THUS WILL TREND HIGHS
TOWARD THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.
TONIGHT...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS BUILDING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA, PROVIDING CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE. MEANWHILE WITHIN
THE LOWER LEVELS, THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC AS THE
LOW EXITS AND EASTWARD AND THE PLAINS SURFACE HIGH ARRIVES ACROSS
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT SHOW DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS,
BUT DO HINT AT SATURATION ALOFT AS SOME RIDGE RIDING CIRRUS MAY BE
PRESENT. AS THE RIDGE ARRIVES TONIGHT, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RETURN LEADING TO 850MB TEMPS RETURNING TO -6C BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOWS
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 20.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE FOCUS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD REMAINS ON A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. TUESDAY WILL SERVE AS A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS THE COLD,
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE EARLY WEEK GIVES WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 40S. RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS
INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME LIFT, THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM NEARS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE INVOLVES A COMPLEX
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIALLY PUSHES
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-40S BEFORE CAA SURGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A RAIN-TO-SNOW
TRANSITION WITH THE MAIN QUESTIONS BEING THE TIMING AND SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TRANSITION. IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SOONER, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO TO CONSIDER IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR LONGER,
FAVORING LIQUID RAIN AND LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION TO
JUST THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. GIVEN CURRENT ENSEMBLE QPF
SPREAD, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT, LIKELY UNDER AN INCH,
BUT TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY ARISE DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WHERE THE TRANSITION IS MOST EFFICIENT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM, A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME IS ANTICIPATED. FRIDAY
WILL SEE A RETURN TO DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SKIES CLEARING AND HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS WARMUP IS A DIRECT RESULT OF
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST, WHICH OPENS THE
GULF FOR A MORE PERSISTENT MOISTURE TAP.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DISPLAYS A
WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES REGARDING THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. ONE SCENARIO
INVOLVES A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WOULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
A COOLDOWN. HOWEVER, A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO INVOLVES A MUCH WARMER
SOLUTION WHERE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH WOULD
PUMP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, POTENTIALLY PUSHING
HIGHS INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW-END POPS (20-40%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY, WITH A
GENERAL TREND TOWARD A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER BACK IN FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
IMPACTS:
- LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES, MAINLY AT LAF AND IND
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
DISCUSSION:
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER OVER INDIANA AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST STRENGTHENS AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. GOES19 SHOWS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
OVER WI AND MI, ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCOMPANY THESE CLOUDS, HOWEVER VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. CIG HOWEVER WILL VARY FROM TIME TO TIME BETWEEN 2500FT TO
3500FT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE SATURATION WITHIN
THE LOWER LEVELS TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP, LEADING TO A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDING INTO INDIANA THROUGH
THE DAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...PUMA
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