511
FXUS63 KIND 240528
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1228 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
- WARMER LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED BY THIS
WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR SW MISSOURI SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE GRADUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH HAS HELPED TO CLEAR OUT LOW
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED QUICKLY NOW
DUE TO A WEAKENING MSLP GRADIENT.
LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED COOLING WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET,
MAINLY ACROSS NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, THE GUSTY NATURE MAY SLIGHTLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITHIN STRONGER BURSTS OF FLURRIES. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ALOFT, ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NEW ENGLAND IS ALLOWING NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF UP TO 25-30 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET. WITH THESE GUSTS, WIND CHILLS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE TEENS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
DROPPING WINDS NEARER TO 5 MPH AS THE DIRECTION SHIFTS TO OUT OF THE
SOUTH. GOING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE
WAA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER GUSTY DAY IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AGAIN FORMING A JET
ALOFT THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH
FOR TUESDAY MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS MEANS THAT
DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TOMORROW, WIND CHILLS WILL STILL
MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT'LL BE IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE
A FEW MIXED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS, HOWEVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A BORDERLINE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AND MODEL DISCREPANCIES MAKE FOR
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TYPES AND POSSIBLE AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT EVEN IF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION DOES
OCCUR, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S WEDNESDAY, VERY
BORDERLINE LOWS (PARTICULARLY FROM INDY SOUTHWARD) WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AND HIGHS THURSDAY RECOVERING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT THROUGH WARMER GROUND
SURFACES. NEVERTHELESS, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MINOR
IMPACTS TO THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE, AND THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING.
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS WARM AND DRY, WITH
HIGHS BY FRIDAY PUSHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP. TYPE WILL BE A BIT IN QUESTION HERE AS
WELL, BUT FOR THE MOMENT SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
IMPACTS:
- VFR EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD
- SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THIS
TAF PERIOD. GOES19 SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT, ALLOWING
AREAS OF HIGH CI TO STREAM TOWARD THE TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOW ONLY HIGH SATURATION, INDICATIVE OF THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW OF HIGH CI.
WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUGGESTED
TO PUSH IN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUGGESTED TO SET UP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND LOW TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL
MIXING WILL BE BE IN PLACE.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET AS MIXING IS LOST.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MELO
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...PUMA
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