858
FXUS63 KIND 241055
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, PARTLY
SUNNY AND WARMER.
- INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
- PRECIPITATION LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAINLY
BROAD RIDGING IN PLACE THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS HIGH
CLOUD WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WAS STREAMING TOWARD
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES REMAINED RATHER COLD, IN THE TEENS, DESPITE
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. DRY AIR WAS IN PLACE WITHIN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS WITH LIGHT WINDS PROMOTING EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
TODAY...
THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE
OVER MANITOBA WILL DRIFT EAST TO ONTARIO AND DEEPEN. THIS LOW WILL
HELP A COLD FRONT DEVELOP OVER MN/IA AND KS. AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM, MODELS SUGGEST A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. MODELS SHOW A STRONG LLJ AROUND 50 KNTS DEVELOPING OVER
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS PROBLEM FOR THIS SYSTEM, AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND GULF FLOW IS BLOCKED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONTINUED DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SATURATION IN PLACE ALOFT DUE TO THE HIGH PASSING CI. THIS WILL BE A
GOOD SET-UP FOR MIXING, ALLOWING SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO MIX. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL TREND HIGHS TO AROUND 40, WITH MANY SPOTS
REACHING THE LOWER 40S. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH A WINDY
AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...
AS HEATING AND MIXING IS LOST, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE
WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME FORCING, HOWEVER BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION, BUT CERTAINLY DO TREND
TOWARD A MORE MOIST COLUMN. HRRR DOES SUGGEST A BAND OF RAIN/SNOW
PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LIMITED POPS FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION, AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
CONSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, PLACING THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS IN PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW, AND DOWNSTREAM OF
CONSISTENT SUPERGEOSTROPHIC CYCLOGENESIS. THAT SAID, THIS RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, AND BY THE WEEKEND, MEAN
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY, LEADING TO GREATER
INFLUENCE FROM LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
INITIALLY, AN AMPLIFIED LOW LEVEL WAVE DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG JET
STREAK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SHIFTING FLOW BACK TO A MORE UNIFORM NW DIRECTION
AND USHERING IN COOLER AIR. HOWEVER, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY
STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH, KEEPING MILD WEATHER FOR ENTIRETY OF THE
DAY. AS THE FRONT PASSES EARLY WEDNESDAY, A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING
PRIOR TO ARRIVAL, BUT GIVEN MODEST WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS TO ALL FALL AS RAIN.
STRONG JET DYNAMICS ALOFT ALONG WITH A MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN PRESSURE DEPLETION LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, WEAK DEFORMATION WILL FORM
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PASSING PRESSURE TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, CREATING A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO HOVER
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING, LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, 00Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A MORE NORTHWARD BAROCLINIC ZONE, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
SOLUTIONS AND LESS SNOW. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO STILL VARIED ON
FORCING PLACEMENT, LEADING TO EVEN FURTHER UNCERTAINTY. EITHER WAY,
LARGE SCALE IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO LACK OF HIGH SLRS AND
MINIMAL LONGEVITY. THIS ALL SAID, A QUICK, BUT WET INCH TO TWO
INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
MORNING.
AFTER THIS WEAK LOW PASSAGE THURSDAY, AN ADDITIONAL, STRONGER LOW
WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, ONCE AGAIN SHIFTING
FLOW BACK TO THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RESPOND CORRESPONDINGLY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 554 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
IMPACTS:
- VFR EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
- SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THIS MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GOES19 SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT, ALLOWING
AREAS OF HIGH CI TO STREAM TOWARD THE TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THROUGH 06Z SHOW ONLY HIGH SATURATION, INDICATIVE OF THIS NORTHWEST
FLOW OF HIGH CI.
WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUGGESTED
TO PUSH IN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUGGESTED TO SET UP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND LOW TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL
MIXING WILL BE BE IN PLACE.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET AS MIXING IS LOST. A
WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...UPDIKE
AVIATION...PUMA
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