597
FXUS63 KIND 241954
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
- CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WITH
A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH, THOUGH
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT IMPACT
- WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND A FEW
60S POSSIBLE
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A LOW CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS, PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, THOUGH FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST BRIEFLY MOST OF THE
AREA. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS SITUATION IS MOISTURE,
WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR EATING INTO PRECIPITATION THAT
FORMS, AND A LOSS OF MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE LATE AS THE
LOW LEVELS FINALLY BEGIN TO BETTER MOISTEN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RESULTING FROM LEE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT MOVES ITS WAY EASTWARD. WILL HAVE TO CARRY SOME
LOW TO MIDDLING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT MODEST AT BEST FORCING COMBINED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MOISTURE CONCERNS WILL AGAIN LIMIT PRECIPITATION, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY
CENTRAL AND NORTH WHERE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE MOST
SUPPORTIVE. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL HELP TO
MINIMIZE IMPACT OF THIS SNOW IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
MESOSCALE FORCING WHICH WOULD PROVIDE RATES MORE LIKELY TO OVERWHELM
THIS GROUND SURFACE WARMTH.
ONCE PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY MIDDAY, THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL BE DRY, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY DURING
THE DAY, WHEN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S APPEAR LIKELY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS THAT OF PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OUT WEST. SUCH A SET UP PLACES
INDIANA WITHIN BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAVORS COOLER-THAN-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BEGINNING TO
CHANGE BY THE START OF THE LONG RANGE (FRIDAY). A TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED, AND EVENTUALLY A REVERSAL WITH MEAN
TROUGHING SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN US.
A ZONAL PATTERN PLACES INDIANA IN A TOUGH SPOT, SINCE AN EAST-WEST
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION. COMBINED
WITH THE ZONAL JET, A WEST TO EAST STORM TRACK MAY TAKE SHAPE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WOULD ACT TO
REINFORCE COLDER AIR LINGERING OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE,
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BECOME A FORECAST CHALLENGE LATER THIS
WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SUBSEQUENT STORM TRACK. A DEVIATION NORTH OF
SOUTH, ESPECIALLY IN SCENARIOS THAT FEATURE A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT, WOULD HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON WHAT KIND OF WEATHER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION EXPERIENCES. FOR NOW, WE'LL GO WITH A BROAD AREA
OF RAIN SNOW MIX, BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A NARROW AREA OF
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OCCURS. UNTIL THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK
BECOMES CLEAR, ASSUMING THE STORM DEVELOPS AT ALL, FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE ZONAL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TO MEAN
TROUGHING OUT WEST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST. THIS WOULD IMPLY A
WARM UP WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD. ADDITIONALLY, AN
ACTIVE STORM TRACK MAY DEVELOP AS ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND HEADS NORTHEASTWARD, INTERACTING WITH THE PRE-EXISTING
BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH, WARMER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER IS
FAVORED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
IMPACTS:
- OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS A FEW KNOTS EITHER SIDE OF 25KT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FROM 190-200 DEGREES
- LLWS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
- LOW CHANCE FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DISCUSSION:
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, ALLOWING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD, AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THESE,
HOWEVER, ARE TOO LOW PROBABILITY FOR MENTION CURRENTLY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON SOME MODEST MIXING WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE, THOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED THE DEPTH OF THIS MIXING TO LESS THAN
GUIDANCE ORIGINALLY DEPICTED, KEEPING THESE GUSTS LOWER AND MORE
SPORADIC. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH IN TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION THIS
EVENING, THOUGH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN STOUT. AS A
RESULT, WILL CARRY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM 00Z UNTIL WINDS RELAX A
BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE NIGHT. THIS WILL GENERALLY
BE AT 2000 FEET WITH WINDS 230-240 DEGREES AROUND 45KT.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL DROP OFF AS THE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT OCCURS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...NIELD
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