950
FXUS63 KIND 250740
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.
- CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WITH A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH, THOUGH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT IMPACT
- WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND A FEW
60S POSSIBLE
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NW INDIANA TO CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MO. RADAR SHOWED
SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NE INDIANA. DEW
POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WERE STILL QUITE DRY, IN THE 20S. THIS
WAS RESULTING IN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS VIRGA. ALOFT,
WATER VAPOR SHOWED A VERY QUICK UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. BROAD
RIDGING WAS FOUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, LEADING TO A WEAK AND BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS WAS LEADING TO A VERY FAST NW FLOW
ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS INDIANA, FILLED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
ENERGY.
TODAY...
MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL QUICKLY PASS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. BY 12Z, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT
DRAMATICALLY, SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE
DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP DRY WEATHER IN
PLAY TODAY. HOWEVER THE QUICK PACIFIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN THAT FLOW ALOFT. THUS PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS EXIT VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
NEUTRAL ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE TODAY, BUT A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS
IS ALREADY IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C. THUS WITH A
MUCH WARMER START TODAY AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...
WITHIN THE QUICK NW UPPER FLOW, MODELS SUGGEST A BUNDLE OF ENERGY
AMID A SHORT WAVE TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH A LINGERING LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE
FORCING. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE STATE, PUSHED THERE BY THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THUS THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN A TOP DOWN SATURATION
AFTER 00Z, WITH BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING PEAKING BETWEEN 06Z-09Z.
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE BELOW FREEZING, THUS P-TYPE WILL BE MAINLY
SNOW. SOME RAIN MIX IN IS POSSIBLE SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION FOR ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF TIME AS THE
QUICK FORCING PASSES. THUS THIS A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE PRECIP EVENT.
ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL BE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ONCE AGAIN IS SUGGEST TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS THE
DOMINATE PACIFIC NW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TREND
AGAIN TOWARD A VERY DRY COLUMN THROUGH THE DAY AND ONLY PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS WITHIN THE QUICK UPPER FLOW WILL BE EXPECTED. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THAT SUBSIDENCE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM, ALLOWING HIGHS IN ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
THIS WEEKEND WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF CHANGE TO THE BROADER
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS STRONG WAA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH THE
WEST COAST RIDGE EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRIOR TO THIS HAPPENING THOUGH, A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A
SUPERGEOSTROPHIC JET STREAK AIDS IN CYCLOGENESIS. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK, BROAD, WARM SW FLOW WILL
REACH THE REGION LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
WARMER AIRMASS WILL STICK AROUND INTO MOST OF SATURDAY, UNTIL A WEAK
COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKED BY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR, BUT WILL LIKELY STALL
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE FORCING
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BECOMES DISPLACED WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. THE RESULT WILL BE A MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
GENERAL REGION, WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.
THE RESULTING PATTERN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MULTIPLE QUICK
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH A WIDE RANGE IN POTENTIAL OUTCOMES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF
FRONTOGENESIS AND PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS THESE WAVES
PASS THROUGH. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS EVEN FURTHER, THE TEMPERATURE
DISPARITY WITHIN THIS BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY SPAN ACROSS THE
FREEZING POINT, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT, LEADING TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
LOOKING AT THE DAY 8-14 FORECAST, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST, OF WHICH COULD
SIGNAL A WARMING TREND FOR EARLY TO MID MARCH.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
IMPACTS:
- MAINLY VFR THIS TAF PERIOD.
- LOW CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AT IND EARLY THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER OR SPRINKLES IN RETURNS, BUT MUCH OF THIS IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS.
OTHERWISE WE WILL LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 12Z, LEADING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A QUICK
MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL AN MAY BRING MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SNOW, ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...UPDIKE
AVIATION...PUMA
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