993
FXUS63 KIND 260245
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WITH A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH, THOUGH
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT IMPACT
- WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND A FEW
60S POSSIBLE
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH CLOUDS
THICKENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST, TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST. RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME ECHOES, BUT NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND THANKS TO
THE DRY AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS GENERATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA,
AND THIS WAVE WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND, AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN
UPSTREAM RADAR AND THE DRY AIR ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA (AND DRY AIR
IS ALSO UPSTREAM, AS THE ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS DRY AIR BELOW
700MB). HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE POPS BASED ON THESE.
AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA, IT MAY START AS RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX GIVEN WARMER AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL AS PRECIPITATION EVAPORATES SOME IN THE DRY AIR. EXPECT TYPE TO
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. FARTHER SOUTH,
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER, PRECIPITATION MAY STAY AS RAIN OR A MIX
LONGER.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE, RAISED POPS
BUT KEPT THEM BELOW THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. SHIFTED HIGHER POPS
SOUTH BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
STILL BELIEVE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH,
AND INITIAL WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL HELP MITIGATE IMPACTS. HOWEVER,
IF SOME OF THE BANDING FEATURES SEEN IN IOWA MAKE IT TO CENTRAL
INDIANA, THE HEAVIER SNOW WOULD OVERCOME TEMPERATURES/DRY AIR AND
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS TO OUR NORTH,
HOWEVER, AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY UNDER FULL SUN THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE, HOWEVER, DUE TO A TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, SINCE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, A VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE IS MODELED TO PASS THROUGH INDIANA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAVE
BEEN TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION WITH SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION MEMBERS NOW
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. STILL, ENOUGH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. WE'LL CAP POPS AT AROUND 40 PERCENT, WITH
NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER.
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT, SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT TERRIBLY COLD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FROM ABOUT BLOOMINGTON NORTHWARD
WITH RAIN BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORED SOUTH OF THERE. ONE FACTOR
POINTING TOWARDS SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE IS THE MAGNITUDE OF
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
FREEZING, SO ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL THE EVAPORATIVE
PROCESSES SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE
SURFACE. THE DRY AIR IS ALSO A FACTOR LIMITING THE PRECIPITATION IN
GENERAL, SINCE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE LIGHT THE MAJORITY OF IT MAY
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS SUCH, ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION COME TO AN END AROUND 12Z, WITH SKIES CLEARING
THEREAFTER. WITH NO REAL SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AN AIR MASS CHANGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, TO NEAR CALM AT TIMES, AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS THAT OF PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OUT WEST. SUCH A SET UP PLACES
INDIANA WITHIN BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS BEGINNING TO CHANGE BY THE START OF THE LONG RANGE
(FRIDAY). A TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED, AND
EVENTUALLY A REVERSAL WITH MEAN TROUGHING SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN US.
PRIOR TO THIS HAPPENING THOUGH, A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A
SUPERGEOSTROPHIC JET STREAK AIDS IN CYCLOGENESIS. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK, BROAD, WARM SW
FLOW WILL REACH THE REGION LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FOR
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL STICK AROUND INTO MOST OF SATURDAY,
UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE BACKED BY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR, BUT WILL
LIKELY STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BECOMES DISPLACED WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE RESULT WILL BE A MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE GENERAL REGION, WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT.
AN EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION
PLACES INDIANA IN A TOUGH SPOT. COMBINED WITH THE ZONAL JET, A WEST
TO EAST STORM TRACK MAY TAKE SHAPE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG COLD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WOULD ACT TO REINFORCE COLDER
AIR LINGERING OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE, PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY
BECOME A FORECAST CHALLENGE LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SUBSEQUENT STORM TRACK. A DEVIATION NORTH OF
SOUTH, ESPECIALLY IN SCENARIOS THAT FEATURE A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT, WOULD HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON WHAT KIND OF WEATHER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION EXPERIENCES. FOR NOW, WE'LL GO WITH A BROAD AREA
OF RAIN SNOW MIX, BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A NARROW AREA OF
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OCCURS. UNTIL THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK
BECOMES CLEAR, ASSUMING THE STORM DEVELOPS AT ALL, FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE ZONAL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TO MEAN
TROUGHING OUT WEST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST. THIS WOULD IMPLY A
WARM UP WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD. ADDITIONALLY, AN
ACTIVE STORM TRACK MAY DEVELOP AS ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND HEADS NORTHEASTWARD, INTERACTING WITH THE PRE-EXISTING
BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH, WARMER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER IS
FAVORED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 551 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
IMPACTS:
- WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
- MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
- WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW (AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY RAIN) OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS, BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. KIND MAY SEE BRIEF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE EARLY PART
OF THAT TIME PERIOD.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
VICINITY, WINDS WILL VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...ECKHOFF
LONG TERM...UPDIKE/ECKHOFF
AVIATION...50
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