405
FXUS63 KIND 261454
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING, WITH A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS; MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT IMPACT
- WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND A FEW
60S POSSIBLE
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DETAILS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR AN EVENT THAT
WILL INCLUDE RAIN, SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE. LATEST KIND RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE. EXPECT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO HELP DECREASE
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM
UP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP
WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
HAS LED TO SOME FORCING IN THE 700-500MB LAYER LATE THIS EVENING,
ENOUGH FOR SATURATION TO BEGIN IN THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS WITH CLOUD
DECKS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 8-9 KFT. DESPITE THIS, NO PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED DUE TO A DEEP LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL BETWEEN 15-20
DEGREES ACROSS MOST SITES AS OF 06Z, OF WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DELAY ANY PRECIPITATION ONSET TIL LATER TONIGHT, LIKELY TO BEGIN
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM EST.
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF OVERALL WEAK FORCING AND SLRS BELOW 10:1 WITH A WARM
NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MAJORITY OF
THE EVENT. SOME OF THE COURSER GRID SPACING MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON
SOME NARROW 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AS THIS WAVE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE
TERRE HAUTE TO BLOOMINGTON TO SEYMOUR REGIONS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE EVEN MORE MARGINAL THERE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS A LIGHT 0.1-0.2" ACROSS THE I-74 CORRIDOR, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 0.5" NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE IF TEMPERATURES CAN COOL FAST ENOUGH AND THE FRONTOGENESIS
REMAIN STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS.
AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST, WEAK RIDGING UPSTREAM OF THE
W/NW FLOW WILL INDUCE HEIGHT RISES AND SOME GENERAL WARMING WITH
TEMPERATURES NEARING 50 BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY
SNOW RELATED IMPACTS, WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MELTING BY 10-11AM
EST. WINDS WILL CALM INITIALLY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
THROUGH, BUT WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND THE PGF INCREASES.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED FLOW OF MILD, PACIFIC AIR TO STREAM ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS,
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE FOUND IN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH OPEN GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD DUE TO A BERMUDA
HIGH. A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN IL
AND MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOW A DRY
COLUMN WITH THE ONLY CHANCES FOR CLOUDS WITHIN THE UPPER LEVELS DUE
TO THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WARM GULF FLOW IN PLACE, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 WILL BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
ARRIVING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES THEN.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S, WITH SOME
60S FAR SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE WARM WEATHER WILL START TO CHANGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO ARRIVE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL SATURATION INCREASING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE MORE COMPLETE SATURATION ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THAT TIME SHOW A COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING, THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW. THUS WILL INCLUDE
HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW AT THAT TIME.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL INTERACT WITH ARRIVAL OF
SHORT WAVE WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HERE
CONTINUE TO REMAIN SATURATED, WITH A FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURE PRESENT
DUE TO OVERRUNING AND WARM AIR ALOFT. AT THIS POINT, PRECISE
LOCATIONS FOR THIS DELICATE SET-UP REMAIN CHANGEABLE. THUS FOR NOW,
HIGH POPS WILL BE USED, AND AS IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
INDIANA PROVIDES COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THUS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP
SOME CLOUDS AROUND ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS AND PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS INDIANA WITH
THIS FEATURE AND POPS WILL BE NEEDED.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
IMPACTS:
- MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
- WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW (AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY RAIN) OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS, BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. KIND MAY SEE BRIEF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE EARLY PART
OF THAT TIME PERIOD.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
VICINITY, WINDS WILL VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MELO
SHORT TERM...UPDIKE
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...UPDIKE
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