607
FXUS63 KIND 270251
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
951 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
- LOW CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT, NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DETAILS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR AN EVENT
THAT WILL INCLUDE RAIN, SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
ANOTHER AREA OF MID CLOUDS HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
EVENING. HAVE UPPED SKY COVER TO REFLECT THIS. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
ARE UPSTREAM OF THE MID CLOUD, SO ALLOWED SKY COVER TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART, BUT DID NUDGE
SOME AREAS DOWN A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED AREAS. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LOW, STRONGER WINDS NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE MAY RESULT
IN JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. THUS FEEL THAT
PATCHY FOG IS STILL A GOOD DESCRIPTOR OF THE POTENTIAL AND WILL MAKE
NO CHANGES.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING NEAR THE REGION. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM ILLINOIS. THE INCREASING CLOUDS
ARE TIED TO A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH ALOFT, BUT DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IF SUFFICIENT TOP-
DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT ONCE THE SUBTLE WAVES
DEPARTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX
OUT FRIDAY MORNING. A STRENGTHENING MSLP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH FRIDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY NEAR THE MID
60S IN SOME SPOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN KEEPING
WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET. THERE IS A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BRIEFLY STALL DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING AREAS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO WARM UP. AT THIS
TIME, FORECASTED HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO AS WARM AS THE LOW 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND 20 TO 40 PERCENT RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN. HOWEVER,
EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY LIMIT ANY IMPACTS EVEN IF LIGHT SNOW DOES
OCCUR.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA THIS
EVENING BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM'S
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH INDIANA SOMETIMES EARLY
SATURDAY. A COLD AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED ~1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROP
SOUTHWARD BEHIND IT, SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT,
WHILE STRONG, DOES NOT PROGRESS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OHIO
RIVER. AS SUCH, AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL, A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
THE COLORADO ROCKIES RACES EASTWARD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS MUTED, WITH UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING AND OVERRUNING BEING THE PRIMARY SOURCES OF LIFT.
THERMAL PROFILES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SNOW. HOWEVER, THE LOWER 3 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODELED TO BE
VERY DRY. THIS MAY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET SOMEWHAT, WHICH LOOKS
TO BEGIN SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS
LIKELY BECAUSE A WEAK SYSTEM IS PRESSING AGAINST SUCH A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH. IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO
SUPPRESS THESE WEAK SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH THAN GUIDANCE INITIALLY
THINKS. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE STILL BRINGS
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AN AREA OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA, CLOSER TO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH TIME. DEEP TROUGHING LOOKS TO DEVELOP OUT WEST, WITH
RIDGING AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS ALLOWS
THE PREDOMINANT FLOW PATTERN TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVER INDIANA.
SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS WARMER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS.
GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT THIS, WITH BOTH THE NORTH AMERICAN
OSCILLATION (NAO), AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) TRENDING POSITIVE,
ALONG WITH THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN (PNA) TRENDING
NEGATIVE.
THE SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS BECOMING STRONGER FOR THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS SHOW ANOMALOUS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FLOWING INTO THE REGION, WITH MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS EMERGING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF IS HIGH
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT ANY SINGLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN SHOULD BE
TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN AND SIGNAL WITHIN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SHOULD SUCH A
SCENARIO PLAY OUT, THEN RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK ONWARD. THE PRIMARY AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL SHIFT NORTH OR
SOUTH, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 554 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
IMPACTS:
- VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW THIS EVENING
- FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES,
MAINLY NEAR KHUF/KBMG
- SW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 18-26 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
VFR CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING, WITH CEILINGS
GENERALLY ABOVE BKN060. VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND MAY
IMPACT THE SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE SOUTHERN
SITES HAVING THE BEST ODDS TO SEE SOME FOG.
AFTER ANY FOG MIXES OUT FRIDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...MELO
LONG TERM...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...50
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