232
FXUS63 KIND 271711
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1211 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
- LOW CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT, NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR
AN EVENT THAT WILL INCLUDE RAIN, SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING WITH SKIES CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION. 14Z TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE HEADING FORWARD THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. THE ONSET OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN A BREEZY
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE TO MONITOR FOR LATER TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RH VALUES LOWERING TO NEAR 30% IF NOT SLIGHTLY
LOWER INTO THE 25-30% RANGE WILL PRESENT AN ENVIRONMENT MORE
CONDUCIVE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT. THIS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHERE RH VALUES WILL BE LOWEST AND
GUSTS HIGHEST AT 30-35MPH THIS AFTERNOON. SOILS ACROSS THE AREA DO
REMAIN MOIST WHICH WILL SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR TO GREATER
CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HAS KEPT THE PREDOMINANT NW FLOW
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING, WITH A SURFACE HIGH EXITING TO
THE EAST. PORTIONS OF THE HIGH WILL BECOME ELONGATED OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA THIS MORNING, LEADING TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING
WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH GREATER LATENT HEAT FLUXES FROM YESTERDAYS
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WABASH RIVER VALLEY, BUT VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 3SM,
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LEVEL FLOW. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE.
TODAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS
SUPER-GEOSTROPHIC FLOW OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL INDUCE
HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH
STRONG SW FLOW REACHING CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING. WITHIN THIS SW FLOW, MODEST WAA WILL CONTINUE OUR
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE LOW 60S THIS
AFTERNOON.
MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MIXING LAYER WILL LIKELY REACHING AT
LEAST 4KFT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THIS INDUCING
AT LEAST 20KT WIND GUSTS. THAT SAID, GIVEN THE STRONG, DRY WAA
REGIME, MIXING IS TYPICALLY SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN GUIDANCE, WITH THE
MIXING LAYER LIKELY TO PUSH 5-6KFT. THIS WOULD TAP INTO SLIGHTLY
GREATER MOMENTUM TRANSFER, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS GREATER MIXING
WILL LIKELY ALSO LEAD TO POCKETS OF HIGH DEW POINTS DEPRESSIONS WITH
PERIODS OF RH VALUES NEARING 25% AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOLLOWING SUITE.
STILL, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR WEAK WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT, MAINTAINING AT 5-7KT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
CANADA EXITING TO THE EAST AND SHIFTING THE PATTERN OVER INDIANA TO
A MORE QUASI-ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE THE SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AND
DROP THEM DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT,
WHILE STRONG, DOES NOT PROGRESS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OHIO
RIVER. AS SUCH, AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A QUICK
PASSING WAVE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF THERE WOULD EVEN BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS MUTED, WITH
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND OVERRUNING BEING THE PRIMARY SOURCES OF LIFT.
THERMAL PROFILES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SNOW. HOWEVER, THE LOWER 3 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODELED TO BE
VERY DRY. THIS MAY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET SOMEWHAT AS THE DRY
LAYER GETS ERODED, WHICH LOOKS TO BEGIN SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY BECAUSE A WEAK SYSTEM IS
PRESSING AGAINST SUCH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH. IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES,
IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO SUPPRESS THESE WEAK SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH
THAN GUIDANCE INITIALLY THINKS. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE STILL BRINGS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO MOST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA, POTENTIALLY UP TO A FEW INCHES. AN AREA OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA, CLOSER TO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH TIME. DEEP TROUGHING LOOKS TO DEVELOP OUT WEST, WITH
RIDGING AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS ALLOWS
THE PREDOMINANT FLOW PATTERN TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVER INDIANA.
SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS WARMER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS.
GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT THIS, WITH BOTH THE NORTH AMERICAN
OSCILLATION (NAO), AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) TRENDING POSITIVE,
ALONG WITH THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN (PNA) TRENDING
NEGATIVE.
THE SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS BECOMING STRONGER FOR THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS SHOW ANOMALOUS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FLOWING INTO THE REGION, WITH MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS EMERGING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF IS HIGH
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT ANY SINGLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH
A GRAIN OF SALT. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN AND SIGNAL WITHIN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SHOULD SUCH A SCENARIO
PLAY OUT, THEN RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK
ONWARD. THE PRIMARY AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL SHIFT NORTH OR
SOUTH, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
IMPACTS:
- SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS PEAKING AT TIMES AT 20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON
- SHORT 3-4 PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE OHIO
VALLEY RESIDES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A SHARP
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT AT THE
SURFACE TO W/NW OVERNIGHT. VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING TO A PREDOMINANT EASTERLY
DIRECTION MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...RYAN
SHORT TERM...UPDIKE
LONG TERM...ECKHOFF/KF
AVIATION...RYAN
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