007
FXUS63 KIND 272253
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
553 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, BUT LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
- MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
BEAUTIFUL LATE WINTER AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HAS BROUGHT A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 19Z
TEMPERATURES HAD SOARED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH READINGS NEAR 65 IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
A RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT TERM IS IN STORE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A WEAK BOUNDARY PASSAGE
TONIGHT. DESPITE NORTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
WIND GUSTS AND THE PRESENCE OF A SUBTLE ELEVATION IN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY. PEAK GUSTS TO THIS
POINT HAVE NOT BEEN HIGHER THAN 20 TO 25MPH BUT THE APPROACH OF AN
AXIS OF STRENGTHENING 925MB FLOW BY LATE DAY COMBINED WITH A MIXING
LEVEL PEAKING NEAR 4KFT MAY NUDGE PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 30MPH OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. RH VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 30-35% RANGE
IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP AS LOW AS 25%
PRIOR TO SUNSET. AN OVERALL MOIST GROUND OVER THE REGION WILL SERVE
AS A MITIGATING FACTOR TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE CONCERNS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE WIND GUSTS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED UNTIL NEAR SUNSET.
PERIODIC GUSTS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY INTO THE EVENING BUT AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL
TREND TOWARDS CUTTING OFF GUSTS AND DROPPING WINDS BACK TO 10-15MPH
UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT HAS VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO A BRIEF BUT
SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH A VEERING OF THE
WINDS TO W/NW IN ITS WAKE ARE THE ONLY SIGNIFYING FEATURES WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ON SATURDAY WITH A SLOW BUT STEADY
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY
BY MIDDAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
TEMPS...THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT COMING THROUGH TONIGHT IS NOT
APPRECIABLY COOLER. LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT
WITH WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AND PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH STILL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW AND MID
50S NORTH OF I-70 WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A FEW SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND MODEST FORCING PROMOTING LOW POPS. QPF AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY GOING TO REMAIN LIGHT AS RESIDUAL DRY AIR WILL DELAY TOP-DOWN
SATURATION. SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT, BUT LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER DUE
TO STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SUBTLE SYSTEM. RAIN
SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE GIVEN THESE TRENDS.
A SECOND LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED FURTHER
SOUTH WITH LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL
PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE THOUGH IF MORE SOUTHERLY TRENDS
CONTINUE THEN SOME AREAS COULD END UP ONLY SEEING A DUSTING AT
MOST.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...
A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH TIME AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. DEEP TROUGHING LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OUT WEST, WITH RIDGING AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN US. THIS ALLOWS THE PREDOMINANT FLOW PATTERN TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER INDIANA. SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS WARMER AND WETTER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT THIS, WITH
BOTH THE NORTH AMERICAN OSCILLATION (NAO), AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION
(AO) TRENDING POSITIVE, ALONG WITH THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN
PATTERN (PNA) TRENDING NEGATIVE.
THE SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS BECOMING STRONGER FOR THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS SHOW ANOMALOUS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FLOWING INTO THE REGION, WITH MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS EMERGING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF IS HIGH
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND SUPPORTING
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN. EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING,
EVOLUTION, AND OR LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES.
SHOULD SUCH A SCENARIO PLAY OUT THEN RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP
LATE NEXT WEEK ONWARD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE BULLISH
ON RIVER FLOODING DEVELOPING. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MINOR
RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE WABASH AND LOWER WHITE/EAST FORK WHITE. THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH, SO STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
IMPACTS:
- WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST
- SHORT PERIOD OF LLWS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
DISCUSSION:
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS MAY
LINGER EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN THEY SHOULD END. HOWEVER, STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS LATER, CREATING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR.
SOME FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 6000FT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE, GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH THEN MID CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MELO/ECKHOFF
AVIATION...50
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