190
FXUS63 KIND 281143
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
643 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S. ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
- SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD IMPACT MONDAY
MORNING TRAVEL.
- A WARMING TREND, WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN INCLUDING POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE OCCLUSION OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, WITH A
DISPLACED COLD FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AS
MEAN FLOW OUT OF THE NW CONTINUES TO CREATE WEAK CAA FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY HAS VERTICAL TILT TO THE SOUTH,
CREATING VARIABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING BACK INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGING ON THE AREA AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
CONTINUING ON THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT
LEAVES THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL REACH BY MIDDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.
WINDS WILL BECOME OUT OF THE ENE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT,
SUSTAINED AROUND 7-10 MPH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, COUNTERACTING
CONVERGENT TENDENCIES WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF A
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT BUT VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AS DUSK NEARS LATER TONIGHT, WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MODEST PRESSURE DEPLETION
AND RISING MOTION OF THE REGION, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AFTER 23Z. CAMS ARE HINTING AT SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
DEPLETION THIS EVENING, OF WHICH MAY INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME,
BUT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAT 0.1" FOR ALL AREAS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
BRINGING A WARMING TREND AND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
TO START OFF, UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA, TURNING MORE
QUASI-LINEAR INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHOULD SET UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA, LIKELY JUST TO THE SOUTH,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE SNOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND WITH LOWERED AMOUNTS WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SEEMS TO HAVE
MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AT THIS TIME NEAR AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND A TRACE, IF ANYTHING,
IN THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SNOW TRANSITIONS TO RAIN
MONDAY MORNING, SNOW MAY IMPACT MORNING TRAFFIC.
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS AMPLIFIED TROUGHING GRADUALLY SETS UP IN THE WEST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AMPLE WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE SIGNAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED IN THE MODELS AS
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS COULD MOVE THROUGH. THIS THREAT HAS PROMPTED A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXACT
DETAILS ON TIMING, EVOLUTION, AND OR LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES.
SHOULD SUCH A SCENARIO PLAY OUT THEN RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK ONWARD.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
IMPACTS:
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CIRRUS DECKS AND LIGHT ENE WINDS BELOW 10KT ARE EXPECTED
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. BEGINNING AROUND 23Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BKN
CEILINGS AROUND 6KFT. A BRIEF DROP INTO MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE,
BUT UNLIKELY WITHIN THESE RAIN SHOWERS.
THESE SCT TO BKN 6KFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW UNTIL AN OVC
STRATUS DECK AROUND 4KFT ARRIVES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AFTER THE SHOWER PASSAGE TONIGHT BECOMING
PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE NORTH BY 07-09Z.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UPDIKE
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...UPDIKE
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