129
FXUS63 KIND 141901
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
301 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATE SUNDAY, WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY 11AM TO MONDAY AT 8AM.
- WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH.
- SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY ON MONDAY, DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE.
- MUCH COLDER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO TUESDAY
MORNING
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
OUR ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON A POTENT VORT MAX EJECTING FROM THE
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER NEBRASKA AS THE VORT MAX AMPLIFIES SUBSTANTIALLY. THE RESULTING
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A BROAD WARM SECTOR LIFTING NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW. TEMPERATURES LIKELY CLIMB THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES, AND MAY BE WARMER
AT SUNRISE SUNDAY THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
THE WARMTH WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRONG MASS RESPONSE, AS MENTIONED
ABOVE. A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET, BETWEEN 60-80KT, IS MODELED TO
DEVELOP. DIURNAL MIXING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL PROMOTE STRONG
WIND GUSTS, BETWEEN 45-55 MPH, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING/NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT 11AM SUNDAY AND CONTINUING UNTIL 8AM MONDAY.
A VERY SHARP, STRONG COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
WITH A BROAD WARM SECTOR WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH AHEAD
OF IT, THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY, THOUGH MODELS
TEND TO UNDER REPRESENT INSTABILITY IN ADVECTION-DRIVEN EVENTS SUCH
AS THIS. REGARDLESS, SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST. THOUGH JUST ON THE EDGE OF THEIR RANGE, SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE DEPICTS LONG, CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 30-40KT OF SHEAR IN
THE 0-1KM LAYER.
DESPITE ONLY MODEST LAPSE RATES, STRONG FRONTAL FORCING IS LIKELY
MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE. HOWEVER,
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF,
THUS FAVORING A SQUALL LINE OVER FREE-ROAMING WARM SECTOR STORMS.
THIS, COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR PROFILES, FAVORS SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
QLCS TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN TERMS OF TIMING, RIGHT NOW
MOST GUIDANCE IS LOCKED ONTO THE 00Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME. AS SUCH, THIS
LOOKS TO BE A NOCTURNAL EVENT. THIS DOES NOT MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT, HOWEVER, SINCE STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
INTO THE NIGHT.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS VERY SHARP. A QUICK
DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ONCE IT PASSES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO QUICKLY PLUMMET INTO THE
30S/40S AND EVEN INTO THE UPPER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY MONDAY
MORNING. POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN, GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE POSITION OF THE PARENT LOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE
TEMPERATURE DROPS BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL, A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE 20S MONDAY MORNING
MAY ALLOW FOR ICY/SLICK SPOTS TO DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS.
STRONG WINDS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW AS IT EXITS INTO EASTERN CANADA. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45 MPH
ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S, WIND CHILLS MAY BE WELL INTO THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE,
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 60S BY FRIDAY. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE A CLIPPER WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
IMPACTS:
- NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45KT LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT TO BKN CLOUD
DECKS BETWEEN 10K FT AND 25K FEET AT TIMES.
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING LOW. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED FROM 09Z TO
16Z. AFTER THAT, DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO BEGIN
REACHING THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE LIKELY RANGE FROM 40
TO 45 KT LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD, FROM 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY. SOME OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAZARDOUS FLYING CONDITIONS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
DISCUSSION...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
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