495
FXUS63 KIND 160657
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
257 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TODAY WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE MOST AREAS
- MUCH COLDER AIR EARLY THIS WEEK, WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO TUESDAY
MORNING
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING, BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. 06Z TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S MOST
AREAS. SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WAS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THANKS TO THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS
IT SLOWLY EXITS. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON, BUT WITH
THESE BEING BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, WILL NOT EXTEND THE TIME
OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY, WHICH EXPIRES AT 12Z.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY, PROVIDING
SOME FORCING. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE STEEP LAPSE RATES AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THESE WILL CREATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE
BRIEFLY HEAVY THANKS TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UP TO AN INCH, BUT ISOLATED 2
INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE, TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 14 TO 19 DEGREE RANGE MOST
AREAS. THESE READINGS COMBINED WITH EXPECTED WINDS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO NEAR ZERO BY 12Z TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
TUESDAY...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RULE ON TUESDAY. SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER, BUT ONLY INTO THE MIDDLE
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD, MAINLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM AN
UPPER JET. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY WEDNESDAY, MELTING ANY SNOW. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN USA WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA,
BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME UPPER ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A COOLDOWN, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE DETAILS.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
IMPACTS:
- BRIEF IFR CEILINGS EARLY
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS, WITH MOST COVERAGE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS.
- WIND GUSTS REMAIN OVER 30KT THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION:
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE, PEAKING MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS, WITH GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF THE
SNOW.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT
LIKELY AT TIMES.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50
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