190
FXUS63 KIND 161729
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
129 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TODAY WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE MOST AREAS
- MUCH COLDER AIR EARLY THIS WEEK, WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO TUESDAY
MORNING
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE WEEK
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. WIND
GUSTS REMAIN BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH, HOWEVER. AN ISOLATED GUST TO 45
MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER.
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TODAY AS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A PBL AS DEEP AS 700MB (10,000 FEET), LEADING
TO NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY BETWEEN 25-75 J/KG 3CAPE. COMBINED
WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS BETWEEN 3-5
CURRENTLY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS SUCH, LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY. GIVEN THE
LACK OF STRONG FORCING, THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CELLULAR IN NATURE.
FURTHERMORE, THERE IS NO STRONG ARCTIC AIR ADVECTION THUS
MITIGATING THE FLASH-FREEZE POTENTIAL. STILL, THE HEAVIEST OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/4
MILE AND BRIEFLY SNOW-COVERED ROADWAYS.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES TODAY.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING, BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. 06Z TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S MOST
AREAS. SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WAS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THANKS TO THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS
IT SLOWLY EXITS. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON, BUT WITH
THESE BEING BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, WILL NOT EXTEND THE TIME
OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY, WHICH EXPIRES AT 12Z.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY, PROVIDING
SOME FORCING. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE STEEP LAPSE RATES AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THESE WILL CREATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE
BRIEFLY HEAVY THANKS TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UP TO AN INCH, BUT ISOLATED 2
INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE, TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 14 TO 19 DEGREE RANGE MOST
AREAS. THESE READINGS COMBINED WITH EXPECTED WINDS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO NEAR ZERO BY 12Z TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
TUESDAY...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RULE ON TUESDAY. SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER, BUT ONLY INTO THE MIDDLE
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD, MAINLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM AN
UPPER JET. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY WEDNESDAY, MELTING ANY SNOW. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN USA WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA,
BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME UPPER ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A COOLDOWN, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE DETAILS.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
IMPACTS:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS, IFR OR EVEN LIFR POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS.
- WNW WIND GUSTS NEAR OR OVER 30-35KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
DISCUSSION:
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS IN PLACE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVERHEAD. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWER FORMATION WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. SINCE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED IN NATURE, A TEMPO GROUP
WAS INCLUDED FOR BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR / LIFR.
OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35KT. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND BEGINS. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
(ABOVE 10KT) THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ECKHOFF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
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