887
FXUS63 KIND 171122
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
722 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS ENDING THIS MORNING.
- WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO THIS MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UP
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING. SOME UPPER ENERGY IS MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE AREA, WHICH IS AIDING
FORCING. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH
THE PRE-12Z TIME FRAME.
AFTER 12Z, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL IMPACT MAINLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE IT EXITS MID-MORNING. WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS GENERATED BY THIS. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP BY AFTERNOON, BUT HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
IF THE HIGH AT INDY REMAINS UNDER 30 DEGREES, IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
ST PATRICK'S DAY HIGH TEMPERATURE SINCE 1941.
THE EVENING WILL BE QUIET WITH THICKENING CLOUDS, BUT SNOW CHANCES
WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL BE WEAK, BUT ALOFT SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH.
SNOW THAT DEVELOPS FROM THE LIFT WILL INITIALLY FIGHT DRY LOWER
LEVELS, BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO
OVERCOME IT BY LATER IN THE NIGHT. WILL RAISE GUIDANCE POPS AND GO
HIGH END CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY CATEGORIES FOR POPS MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT.
THANKS IN PART TO THE DRY AIR, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING, SO
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING THEN. OTHERWISE, WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, MELTING ANY SNOW FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH CENTRAL
INDIANA REMAINING NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE. AN UPPER WAVE WILL
RIDE THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY.
THE RIDGE INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW WARM IT WILL GET, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S BY SATURDAY, WITH OTHERS KEEPING READINGS
AROUND 70.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO RETURN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. QUESTIONS
REMAIN ON JUST HOW COOL IT WILL GET, BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY RETURN AROUND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
IMPACTS:
- POSSIBLE MVFR THROUGH 13Z-14Z IN LINGERING -SHSN AT KIND/KLAF...
WITH HIGH-MVFR LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH 16Z AT KLAF
- WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 17-20KT, DIMINISHING THIS MORNING
- PERIOD OF -SN LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR/LOW-VFR AFTER 06Z-09Z
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, FOLLOWING
BRIEF/ISOLATED MVFR THIS MORNING IN ANY LINGERING -SHSN THROUGH 14Z
AND/OR AT KLAF. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 17-20KT THROUGH 14Z-
16Z...WITH FLOW FINALLY DIMINISHING LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
BACKING TO SOUTHWEST BY 00Z AMID BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING.
WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS SMALLER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM ILLINOIS...WITH CIGS FALLING TO LOW-VFR/HIGH-MVFR
AMID PERIOD OF -SN THAT SHOULD BRING MVFR/POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR VIS AT
KIND/KLAF AFTER 06Z.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...AGM
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