405
FXUS63 KIND 180651
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
251 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
- SNOW COULD CREATE SLICK AREAS ON AREA ROADS THIS MORNING
- LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SOME FORCING AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE WAS
PRODUCING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA, BUT THANKS TO VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS, LITTLE IF ANY WAS REACHING THE GROUND. MEANWHILE,
ADDITIONAL FORCING WAS PRODUCING SNOW IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
THE FIRST AREA OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING
THE GROUND AS IT MOVES THROUGH IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE DRY LOW
LEVELS PERSIST. WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE CATEGORY OR LOWER POPS WEST
AND SOUTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THE OTHER AREA OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA PREDAWN INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. SOME
WEAKENING HAS BEEN NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR, BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
STILL SHOW DECENT COVERAGE. WILL KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TOWARD 12Z.
WILL GO WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AND FOR MOST AREAS AFTER
12Z. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN AND
WHERE EXACTLY THE LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL SET UP. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND ADJUST POPS AS NEEDED. AT ANY RATE, ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH.
WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE SOME, ESPECIALLY WEST AS FORCING/MOISTURE FROM THE
EARLIER SYSTEM EXITS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST, WITH LOWS COOLING TO THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
AN UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
WITH CENTRAL INDIANA ON THE PERIPHERY. AN UPPER WAVE RIDING THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. WITH BEST
FORCING EAST, WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY OR LOWER. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE THAT RAIN WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, PROVIDING WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 MOST AREAS.
UNCERTAINTY THEN RAMPS UP STARTING SATURDAY. DETERMINISTIC GFS (AND
HINTED AT BY THE END OF THE NAM) SHOWS A COLD FRONT MAKING IT
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE ECMWF HOLDS FAST WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS NOT CHANGING MUCH, NOT SURE
THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE THAT FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 70.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS WARM AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, BUT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE GETS FLATTENED, COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW COOL, BUT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH SOME RECOVERY INTO
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SOME WEAK FORCING COULD BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES
SUNDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
IMPACTS:
- PERIOD OF -SN FROM NW TO SE WITHIN 08Z-15Z...WITH AT TIMES HIGH-
MVFR CIG, AND MVFR VIS IN STEADIER -SN...AND IFR VIS POSSIBLE AT
KLAF
- VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDDAY TODAY AT MOST TERMINALS
- S/SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 18-22KT WITHIN 14Z-23Z TODAY
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SN, STARTING AT
KLAF AROUND 08Z, AND KBMG BY 12Z...AND ANY MVFR FROM -SN ENDING
AROUND 14Z-15Z AT MOST TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH HIGH-MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER AT KLAF THROUGH 17Z.
POCKETS OF IFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE AT KIND/KLAF.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL
GUST UP TO 17-22KT ON THE HEELS OF THE SNOW THROUGH 22Z
TODAY...BEFORE FLOW FALLS BELOW 7KT BY 00Z THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF
THE KIND AREA.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...AGM
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