844
FXUS63 KIND 181633
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1233 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING - DRY AIR
LARGELY WON OUT OVERNIGHT AND PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLAKES
MAKING THE GROUND. THERE IS ONE LAST AREA OF SLIGHTLY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RADAR RETURNS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING,
THAT WILL CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND MAYBE A VERY
LIGHT DUSTING, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED AT MOST, AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAKE CARE OF ANY REMAINING TRACE OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THIS GRADUAL PROCESS WILL RESULT IN A DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA -
FROM HIGHS AROUND 40 TO AROUND THE MID 50S, WITH INDY METRO AND
POINTS NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST REACHING LARGELY THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SOME FORCING AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE WAS
PRODUCING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA, BUT THANKS TO VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS, LITTLE IF ANY WAS REACHING THE GROUND. MEANWHILE,
ADDITIONAL FORCING WAS PRODUCING SNOW IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
THE FIRST AREA OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING
THE GROUND AS IT MOVES THROUGH IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE DRY LOW
LEVELS PERSIST. WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE CATEGORY OR LOWER POPS WEST
AND SOUTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THE OTHER AREA OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA PREDAWN INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. SOME
WEAKENING HAS BEEN NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR, BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
STILL SHOW DECENT COVERAGE. WILL KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TOWARD 12Z.
WILL GO WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AND FOR MOST AREAS AFTER
12Z. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN AND
WHERE EXACTLY THE LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL SET UP. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND ADJUST POPS AS NEEDED. AT ANY RATE, ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH.
WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE SOME, ESPECIALLY WEST AS FORCING/MOISTURE FROM THE
EARLIER SYSTEM EXITS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST, WITH LOWS COOLING TO THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
AN UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
WITH CENTRAL INDIANA ON THE PERIPHERY. AN UPPER WAVE RIDING THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. WITH BEST
FORCING EAST, WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY OR LOWER. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE THAT RAIN WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, PROVIDING WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 MOST AREAS.
UNCERTAINTY THEN RAMPS UP STARTING SATURDAY. DETERMINISTIC GFS (AND
HINTED AT BY THE END OF THE NAM) SHOWS A COLD FRONT MAKING IT
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE ECMWF HOLDS FAST WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS NOT CHANGING MUCH, NOT SURE
THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE THAT FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 70.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS WARM AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, BUT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE GETS FLATTENED, COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW COOL, BUT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH SOME RECOVERY INTO
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SOME WEAK FORCING COULD BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES
SUNDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
IMPACTS:
- OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS 18-23KT FROM 190-200 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
- BRIEF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BMG
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OR SHORTLY WILL BE AT ALL SITES. BMG MAY
LINGER NEAR THE MVFR BORDERLINE FOR THE FIRST HOUR, BUT SHOULD
QUICKLY IMPROVE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY CLEARING FROM THE WEST,
AND EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY HIGH CLOUD BY
THIS EVENING. MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THAT CATEGORY BY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 10-14KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 18-23KT, WHICH WILL
END IN TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
10KT WITH SOME PERIODS OF VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM WINDS POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY AT THE OUTLYING SITES.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NIELD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...NIELD
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