847
FXUS63 KIND 191649
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1249 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
SOME PATCHES OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR DIURNAL HEATING, AND THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION/HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND OBS TRENDS SUGGEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEEDED A SLIGHT BUMP UPWARD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH 70 DEGREE READINGS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHEASTWARD AS INDY.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING,
WITH CENTRAL INDIANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. SOME UPPER ENERGY IS MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW AND CREATING
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOST FORCING FROM THIS UPPER ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK FORCING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY, A LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST, BUT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SPRINKLES MOVED THROUGH, MAINLY THIS MORNING.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL CLOUDS THIS MORNING, THESE WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SUNSHINE WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 60S FOR HIGHS.
THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR
LOWS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
MORE UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATER IN THE
DAY. ONCE AGAIN, MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE 70S.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN BACK NORTH ALLOWING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA, BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON WHEN IT WILL. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S, OTHERS WARM THINGS BACK TO THE 70S
(AS WAS THE CASE WITH MOST GUIDANCE EARLIER THIS WEEK).
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST NOSING BACK IN ON SATURDAY, PREFER
THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST UPPER 60S
NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTHWEST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER ON SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES. OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED, SO WILL ONLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO REASSERT ITSELF, RETURNING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. A SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN BY NEXT
THURSDAY.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
IMPACTS:
- GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION:
LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY GRADUALLY WITH TIME, THOUGH VARIABILITY
CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MID MORNING ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY TO
AROUND 20-22KT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
SURFACE HEATING DEEPENS THE MIXED LAYER.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NIELD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...NIELD
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