204
FXUS63 KIND 191923
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
323 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS ON SUNDAY
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY EVENING
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.
WHAT LIMITED MID AND HIGH CLOUD ARE IN THE AREA WILL CLEAR FOR THE
MOST PART BY THIS EVENING, THOUGH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF SOME CLOUD
COVER LATER TONIGHT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THUS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PROMOTE A
FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY, GENERALLY AROUND 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ONLY SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA.
WHILE A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVE THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF HAS SEVERELY LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN, LEAVING LIMITED PACIFIC MOISTURE AS THE MAIN
SOURCE, AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, BUT AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT
PRECIPITATION AND WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A FEW
DEGREES ON SATURDAY FROM FRIDAY'S MAXES, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING, AND THIS
WILL NECESSITATE SOME LOW POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME, THOUGH
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR, ALONG WITH A
MIDLEVEL INVERSION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY PUSH RECORD VALUES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL TIMING WILL DETERMINE
JUST HOW CLOSE THEY GET. THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 82 IN 1907.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SECOND FRONT, HOWEVER, WILL BE TO BRING
TEMPERATURES 20-30 DEGREES EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH THIS WILL
JUST BRING NUMBERS BACK DOWN TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, AND THEY
WILL FAIRLY STEADILY RECOVER THROUGH THE WEEK BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
IMPACTS:
- GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION:
LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY GRADUALLY WITH TIME, THOUGH VARIABILITY
CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MID MORNING ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY TO
AROUND 20-22KT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
SURFACE HEATING DEEPENS THE MIXED LAYER.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
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