907
FXUS63 KIND 091320
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
920 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE TODAY WITH AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AN ISOLATED T-STORM
POSSIBLE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
- MORE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY BRING RECEDING
RIVERS BACK INTO FLOOD STAGES FOR SOME AREAS WITH ACTIVE WEATHER
POTENTIALLY CONTINUING BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
EVOLVING AS EXPECTED. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
MONITORING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
AND DEEP MIXING ALLOWING FOR RH VALUES AS LOW AS 25-30 PERCENT.
THERE WILL BE MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION TO COUNTERACT THE MIXING
OUT OF SURFACE MOISTURE, BUT THINK THAT DEW POINTS WILL DROP AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR 80 WHICH MATCHES THE
ONGOING FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE AREA, BUT LATEST HI-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH ON THE TRACK OF
THE FRONT WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO NORTHERN
INDIANA.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
THE NEXT WEEK WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BREEZY DAYS, AND A
COUPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY AIR SITS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS
EASTWARD. AS EXPECTED, THE COLD FRONT OFF OF THE LOW HAS REALLY
SLOWED DOWN AND THE ASSOCIATED RAIN HAS DIMINISHED SOME AS IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, THE LINE OF
RAIN STRETCHES FROM CHICAGO TO WESTERN ILLINOIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THE FRONT AND THE RAIN WITH IT SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
PERIODICALLY MOVING INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER THROUGH THE DAY THAT WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME
TO OVERCOME, ESPECIALLY AS DEEP MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WILL FURTHER
MIX DOWN THE DRY AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH.
DUE TO THIS, TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AROUND 30%.
BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THE FRONT IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXIT TO
THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE
UP TO 25 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORM
CELLS, OTHERWISE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO DROP SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WILL STILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE NORMAL. LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S BUT
SUNDAY WILL WARM TO INTO THE 80S THANKS TO THE RETURN OF SW FLOW AND
WAA.
MODELS SHOW AN ACTIVE PATTERN PROBABLE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE SW
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FORECAST. WHILE TIMING AND
DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME, THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED FOR AT LEAST MIDWEEK. CONSTANT RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL BE MANY DRY HOURS, BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST EACH DAY.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
IMPACTS:
- LLWS THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN AFTER 06Z FOR LAF AND IND
- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED TODAY, POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30KT
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL
INDUCE A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AROUND 40-45 KNOTS. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING CAUSES IT TO DIMINISH.
DIURNAL MIXING HELPS TRANSFER MOMENTUM FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE
SURFACE, SO AS THE LLWS DIMINISHES SURFACE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES EASTWARD INTO
CANADA. LAF MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE TAF.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LLWS LATE TONIGHT FOR LAF AND IND AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...WHITE
AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...KF
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