302
FXUS63 KIND 092350
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
750 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND
RH AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT
- NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
- RAIN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND RENEWED FLOODING
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF TODAY REMAINS THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. WITH CENTRAL
INDIANA SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES, STRONG WAA IS OCCURRING. DEEP MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO 25-30 KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE LAYER, RESULTING IN SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE MIXING PROCESSES, COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT DRY LAYER SAMPLED
IN RECENT SOUNDINGS, WILL LIKELY DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID-70S, ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORMS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSISTS. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE WABASH VALLEY, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO CANADA. CONSEQUENTLY,
WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, THE LACK OF ROBUST DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY, GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG OF
CAPE, WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RETURN MAY OVERLAP WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN MANAGEABLE, GENERALLY UNDER HALF AN
INCH. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY EVENING, USHERING IN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL MILD AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID-60S TO LOW 70S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD FEATURES A HIGHLY AMPLITUDE PATTERN SHIFT THAT
WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SUNDAY
SERVES AS A TRANSITION DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND
INTENSE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESUMES. ENSEMBLES, INCLUDING THE GEFS
AND EPS, ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT REGARDING A RAPID SURGE IN 850MB
TEMPERATURES, WHICH SHOULD PROPEL SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE-BUILDING PHASE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A
POTENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINS ITS EASTWARD EJECTION. BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, A BROAD THETA-E RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
MIDWEST, CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, RESULTING IN THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ)
AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL CREATE A CLASSIC
SPRING SETUP FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
STILL SHOW TIMING DISCREPANCIES REGARDING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES, THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW CENTERING
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE PROJECTED KINEMATIC PROFILES AND
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
IMPACTS:
- LLWS BETWEEN 40-45KT TONIGHT
- RAIN SHOWERS FROM 10Z ONWARD, ENDING BY 00Z
- MVFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KT FRIDAY
DISCUSSION:
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS
SUNRISE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A
TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT EACH
TERMINAL, BUT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS WELL, WITH SOME LLWS
BETWEEN 40-45KT SHOWN BY MOST GUIDANCE. LLWS PEAKS BETWEEN 04-14Z.
AFTER 14Z, DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW MOMENTUM TO BE TRANSFERED TO
THE SURFACE AND SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AS IT PASSES THROUGH. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
BEFOREHAND WITHIN THE RAIN AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS LIKELY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
DISCUSSION...WHITE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page